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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+1067u
ROI
+8.9%
win rate
62%
bets
131
drawdown
32.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-55u
period 2top-up-140u
period 1profit withdrawn+1263u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll13162%+1067+8.9%32.6%Select
5% of bankroll13162%+534+8.5%24.1%Select
2% of bankroll13162%+217+8.4%12.4%Select
Martingale13162%+126+4%55.1%Select
Flat (10 units)13162%+110+8.4%6.8%Select
1% of bankroll13162%+109+8.4%6.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 131, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26By_Owl Team – Korb3n TeamKorb3n Team1.88105lost-1052067
14.10.26Kalmychata – HULIGANIKalmychata1.53100won+532172
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.6194won+572119
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.88104lost-1042062
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.5399won+532167
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88110lost-1102114
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.88122lost-1222224
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54116won+632346
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82107won+882283
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.70100won+712195
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7094won+662125
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87104lost-1042059
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6897won+672163
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88108lost-1082096
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.86100won+862204
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6993won+642118
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8986won+762054
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8595lost-951978
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6689won+592073
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6599lost-992014
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7292won+672114
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7786won+662047
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8979won+701981
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6374won+471911
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7582lost-821864
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6692lost-921946
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8684won+722038
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8794lost-941966
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76104lost-1042059
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85116lost-1162163
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersGamerLegion1.75108won+802279
01.10.26MOUZ – OGOG1.76100won+762199
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7496lost-962123
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4691won+422218
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88101lost-1012176
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8793won+822278
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43104lost-1042196
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7596won+722300
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6990won+622228
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6385won+542166
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7494lost-942112
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8287won+722206
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5383won+442134
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8676won+652091
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7885lost-852025
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5494lost-942110
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8287won+712204
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8380won+672133
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6475won+492066
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8869won+612017
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8264won+521956
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8159won+481904
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7955won+431856
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5052won+261812
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5358lost-581786
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7254won+391844
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7850won+391805
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7447won+351766
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8743won+381732
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5848lost-481694
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.