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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-6321u
ROI
-29.3%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
632.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-143u
period 24top-up-86u
period 23top-up-211u
period 22top-up-392u
period 21top-up-328u
period 20top-up-147u
period 19top-up-317u
period 18top-up-345u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2198-37.4%219.8%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6321-29.3%632.1%Select
Flat (10 units)254262%-7383-29%738.3%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10928-29.6%1092.9%Select
5% of bankroll254262%-18643-30.2%1864.4%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22964-30.7%2296.5%Select
Quarter Kelly9878%-23194-85.5%2319.4%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.029won+0-5321
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.019won+0-5321
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.019won+0-5321
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.009lost-9-5321
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.009lost-9-5312
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.019won+0-5304
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.019won+0-5304
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.159won+1-5304
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.019won+0-5305
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.029won+0-5305
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.019won+0-5305
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.019won+0-5306
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.809lost-9-5306
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.989won+9-5297
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.129won+1-5305
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.029won+0-5306
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.069won+1-5307
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.009lost-9-5307
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.009lost-9-5298
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.009lost-9-5289
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.009lost-9-5280
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.019won+0-5271
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.009lost-9-5271
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.009lost-9-5262
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.009lost-9-5253
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.029won+0-5244
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersPower Rangers1.089won+1-5244
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.609lost-9-5245
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.229won+2-5235
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersPlayTime1.019won+0-5237
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0010lost-10-5237
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-5228
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.039won+0-5228
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResiliencePlayTime1.069won+1-5228
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.039won+0-5229
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6010lost-10-5229
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG1.0110won+0-5220
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3010lost-10-5220
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-5210
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-5200
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5010won+14-5200
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+11-5215
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-5226
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w TeamTeam Falcons1.0810won+1-5216
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0010lost-10-5217
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-5207
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0010lost-10-5197
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-5187
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-5177
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0110won+0-5177
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-5178
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-5178
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.929lost-9-5178
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.009lost-9-5169
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.019won+0-5159
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHGLYPH1.019won+0-5160
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.509lost-9-5160
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.009won+9-5150
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.019won+0-5160
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.359won+3-5160
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.