Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite β the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-23194u
ROI
-85.5%
win rate
8%
bets
987
drawdown
2319.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
π―
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
π°
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
π
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
π
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-833u
period 24top-up-727u
period 23top-up-934u
period 22top-up-995u
period 21top-up-979u
period 20top-up-880u
period 19top-up-981u
period 18top-up-992u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 251 | 60% | -2198 | -37.4% | 219.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -6321 | -29.3% | 632.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2542 | 62% | -7383 | -29% | 738.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -10928 | -29.6% | 1092.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -18643 | -30.2% | 1864.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -22964 | -30.7% | 2296.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 987 | 8% | -23194 | -85.5% | 2319.4% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 987, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | Β±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | OG β GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -22194 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming β Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -22175 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex β Team Liquid | Team Yandex | 4.80 | 23 | lost | -23 | -22155 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons β PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.98 | 16 | won | +15 | -22132 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP β Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -22147 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters β Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -22123 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine β Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 29 | lost | -29 | -22097 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters β MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -22068 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise β No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 36 | lost | -36 | -22035 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports β No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -21999 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz β Nemiga Gaming | Team Jenz | 14.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -21958 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink β Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 18 | lost | -18 | -21914 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team β BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 13.00 | 52 | lost | -52 | -21895 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming β Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 58 | lost | -58 | -21844 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming β Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 64 | lost | -64 | -21786 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming β 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 71 | lost | -71 | -21722 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid β LGD Gaming | Team Liquid | 2.50 | 54 | won | +81 | -21651 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming β OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 30 | won | +34 | -21732 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team β Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 66 | lost | -66 | -21766 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine β Team Resilience | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 73 | lost | -73 | -21700 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team β TpaBoMaH Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 82 | lost | -82 | -21627 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH β Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.00 | 91 | lost | -91 | -21545 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team β VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 93 | lost | -93 | -21454 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming β LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 13 | lost | -13 | -21361 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team β Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -21349 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team β REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 35 | lost | -35 | -21317 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming β GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 2.00 | 23 | won | +23 | -21282 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy β Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 37 | lost | -37 | -21305 |
| 30.07.26 | Level UP β Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 12.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -21268 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy β 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -21227 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team β TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -21182 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team β Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 56 | lost | -56 | -21132 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team β TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 62 | lost | -62 | -21076 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team β Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 69 | lost | -69 | -21014 |
| 25.07.26 | Level UP β Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 3.10 | 54 | won | +114 | -20946 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming β Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 64 | lost | -64 | -21060 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx β Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 38 | lost | -38 | -20996 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP β Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 75 | lost | -75 | -20957 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx β PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 84 | lost | -84 | -20882 |
| 15.07.26 | Aurora Gaming β Rune Eaters | Aurora Gaming | 15.00 | 93 | lost | -93 | -20799 |
| 12.07.26 | OG β Virtus.pro | OG | 15.00 | 103 | lost | -103 | -20706 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX β Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 68 | lost | -68 | -20603 |
| 09.07.26 | LGD Gaming β 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 122 | lost | -122 | -20534 |
| 04.07.26 | LenS Team β By_Owl Team | By_Owl Team | 2.80 | 117 | lost | -117 | -20412 |
| 03.07.26 | VooDooSh Team β LenS Team | VooDooSh Team | 3.80 | 147 | lost | -147 | -20295 |
| 01.07.26 | ΠΡΡΠ³ΡΠ·ΡΡΠ°Π½ β Π’ΡΡΡΠΈΡ | Π’ΡΡΡΠΈΡ | 12.00 | 165 | lost | -165 | -20149 |
| 01.07.26 | Stariy_bog Team β Gorgc Team | Gorgc Team | 7.50 | 100 | won | +650 | -19984 |
| 29.06.26 | Gorgc Team β LenS Team | Gorgc Team | 5.80 | 7 | lost | -7 | -20634 |
| 27.06.26 | Power Rangers β Yellow Submarine | Power Rangers | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -20627 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere β L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 8 | lost | -8 | -20618 |
| 26.06.26 | VooDooSh Team β SereGGa Team | SereGGa Team | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -20611 |
| 25.06.26 | Recrent Team β SereGGa Team | Recrent Team | 6.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -20601 |
| 25.06.26 | VooDooSh Team β Recrent Team | Recrent Team | 8.50 | 12 | lost | -12 | -20590 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team β Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -20577 |
| 24.06.26 | Yellow Submarine β Virtus.pro | Yellow Submarine | 1.92 | 1 | lost | -1 | -20564 |
| 19.06.26 | Flame Esports β 4ikibamboni | Flame Esports | 13.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -20563 |
| 19.06.26 | Yangon Galacticos β InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 2.80 | 9 | won | +16 | -20547 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports β Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 15 | lost | -15 | -20563 |
| 16.06.26 | Game Master β Grey Trac | Grey Trac | 13.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -20548 |
| 15.06.26 | Red Hot Chili Pibble β Amaru Gaming | Red Hot Chili Pibble | 13.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -20531 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.