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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-6319u
ROI
-29.3%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
631.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-134u
period 24top-up-86u
period 23top-up-211u
period 22top-up-392u
period 21top-up-328u
period 20top-up-147u
period 19top-up-317u
period 18top-up-345u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2203-37.6%220.3%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6319-29.3%631.9%Selected
Flat (10 units)254262%-7380-29%738.1%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10924-29.6%1092.5%Select
5% of bankroll254262%-18634-30.2%1863.5%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22950-30.9%2295.1%Select
Quarter Kelly9828%-23176-86.3%2317.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.029won+0-5319
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.019won+0-5319
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.019won+0-5319
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.009lost-9-5319
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.009lost-9-5310
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.019won+0-5301
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.019won+0-5301
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.159won+1-5302
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.019won+0-5303
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.029won+0-5303
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.019won+0-5303
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.019won+0-5303
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.009lost-9-5303
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.989won+9-5294
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.129won+1-5303
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.029won+0-5304
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.069won+1-5304
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.009lost-9-5305
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.009lost-9-5296
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.009lost-9-5287
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.009lost-9-5278
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.019won+0-5269
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.009lost-9-5269
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxPower Rangers1.019won+0-5260
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.009lost-9-5260
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.029won+0-5250
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersPower Rangers1.089won+1-5250
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.609lost-9-5251
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.229won+2-5242
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersPlayTime1.019won+0-5244
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0010lost-10-5244
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-5234
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.039won+0-5235
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResiliencePlayTime1.069won+1-5235
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.039won+0-5235
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6010lost-10-5236
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG1.0110won+0-5226
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3010lost-10-5226
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-5217
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-5207
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5010won+14-5207
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+11-5221
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-5232
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w TeamTeam Falcons1.0810won+1-5223
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0010lost-10-5223
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-5214
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0010lost-10-5204
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-5194
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-5184
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0110won+0-5184
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-5184
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-5184
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.929lost-9-5185
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.009lost-9-5175
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.019won+0-5166
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHGLYPH1.019won+0-5166
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.509lost-9-5166
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.009won+9-5157
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.019won+0-5166
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.359won+3-5166
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.