Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+114u
ROI
+9%
win rate
62%
bets
128
drawdown
8.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+25u
period 2top-up-5u
period 1profit withdrawn+94u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +1167 | +10.5% | 36% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +567 | +9.5% | 28.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +227 | +9.1% | 15.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 128 | 62% | +129 | +4.2% | 55.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 128 | 62% | +114 | +8.9% | 8.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +114 | +9% | 8.7% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Team | zxcursed Team | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1114 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | Shadow Dance | 1.83 | 10 | won | +9 | 1124 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stariy_bog Team | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1116 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 10 | won | +6 | 1126 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | Power Rangers | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1120 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1112 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1104 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1097 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1090 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 1100 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1093 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | Aurora Gaming | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 1103 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 1094 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1087 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | Team Synapse | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1079 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.66 | 10 | won | +7 | 1089 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1082 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1092 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | MOUZ | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1085 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1077 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | Yellow Submarine | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 1069 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1062 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1072 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 10 | won | +8 | 1082 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1074 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1084 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1094 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1104 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | OG | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1096 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1089 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | Team Yandex | 1.46 | 10 | won | +5 | 1099 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1094 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 1104 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1096 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Spirit | 1.75 | 10 | won | +8 | 1106 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 1098 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Daxak Team | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 1091 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | Stray Team | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1085 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1095 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 1087 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 10 | won | +8 | 1082 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1073 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1083 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1093 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | GamerLegion | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1085 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 1077 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1071 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1062 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 1054 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 1046 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 9 | won | +5 | 1039 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1034 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 9 | won | +7 | 1044 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | Stray Team | 1.78 | 9 | won | +7 | 1037 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Team Nemesis | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 1030 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 9 | won | +8 | 1023 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 9 | won | +6 | 1015 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1009 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | Hokori | 1.78 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1018 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 9 | won | +5 | 1027 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.