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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+1167u
ROI
+10.5%
win rate
62%
bets
128
drawdown
36%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+162u
period 2top-up-272u
period 1profit withdrawn+1277u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12862%+1167+10.5%36%Selected
5% of bankroll12862%+567+9.5%28.7%Select
2% of bankroll12862%+227+9.1%15.6%Select
Martingale12862%+129+4.2%55.1%Select
Flat (10 units)12862%+114+8.9%8.8%Select
1% of bankroll12862%+114+9%8.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.88129lost-1292167
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.83119won+992296
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88132lost-1322196
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54126won+682329
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82116won+962261
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82107won+882165
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.70100won+712077
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7094won+662006
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87104lost-1041941
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6897won+672045
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88108lost-1081978
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.86100won+862086
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6993won+642000
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8986won+761936
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8595lost-951860
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6689won+591955
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6599lost-991896
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7292won+671995
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7786won+661928
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8979won+701863
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6374won+471793
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7582lost-821746
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6691lost-911828
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8684won+721920
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8794lost-941848
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76104lost-1041941
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85116lost-1162045
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74108won+802161
01.10.26MOUZ – OGOG1.76100won+762081
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7481lost-812005
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4677won+352086
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.8886lost-862050
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8779won+692136
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.4388lost-882067
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7582won+612155
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6976won+532094
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6372won+452041
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7480lost-801996
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8274won+612076
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5370won+372015
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8665won+551978
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7872lost-721922
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5480lost-801994
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8274won+612074
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8368won+572013
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6464won+411957
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8859won+521916
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8254won+441864
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8150won+411820
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7947won+371779
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5044won+221742
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5349lost-491720
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7246won+331769
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7843won+331736
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7440won+291703
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8736won+321674
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6634won+231642
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5838lost-381619
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7842lost-421657
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.5740won+231700
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.