Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-22950u
ROI
-30.9%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
2295.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-788u
period 24top-up-685u
period 23top-up-927u
period 22top-up-995u
period 21top-up-985u
period 20top-up-824u
period 19top-up-982u
period 18top-up-989u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 251 | 60% | -2203 | -37.6% | 220.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -6319 | -29.3% | 631.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2542 | 62% | -7380 | -29% | 738.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -10924 | -29.6% | 1092.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -18634 | -30.2% | 1863.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2542 | 62% | -22950 | -30.9% | 2295.1% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 982 | 8% | -23176 | -86.3% | 2317.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.02 | 21 | won | +0 | -21950 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | -21950 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 21 | won | +0 | -21951 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -21951 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -21927 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 26 | won | +0 | -21901 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.01 | 26 | won | +0 | -21902 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.15 | 26 | won | +4 | -21902 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 26 | won | +0 | -21906 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.02 | 26 | won | +1 | -21906 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 26 | won | +0 | -21906 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 26 | won | +0 | -21907 |
| 14.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegion | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -21907 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.98 | 26 | won | +25 | -21879 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.12 | 26 | won | +3 | -21904 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | Aurora Gaming | 1.02 | 25 | won | +1 | -21907 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 25 | won | +2 | -21908 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -21909 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 31 | lost | -31 | -21881 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -21850 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -21815 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -21776 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -21777 |
| 08.08.26 | Power Rangers – Team Syntax | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 43 | won | +0 | -21734 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Team Jenz | 14.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -21734 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | Zero Tenacity | 1.02 | 47 | won | +1 | -21687 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.08 | 47 | won | +4 | -21688 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 52 | lost | -52 | -21691 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | Team Liquid | 1.22 | 51 | won | +11 | -21639 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | PlayTime | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -21650 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 13.00 | 57 | lost | -57 | -21651 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 57 | won | +1 | -21594 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Yakult Brothers | 1.03 | 57 | won | +2 | -21595 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | PlayTime | 1.06 | 56 | won | +3 | -21596 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 56 | won | +2 | -21600 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 62 | lost | -62 | -21601 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 1.01 | 62 | won | +1 | -21539 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 69 | lost | -69 | -21540 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 77 | lost | -77 | -21471 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 77 | won | +1 | -21394 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | Team Liquid | 2.50 | 67 | won | +100 | -21394 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 60 | won | +69 | -21495 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 67 | lost | -67 | -21563 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | Team Falcons | 1.08 | 66 | won | +5 | -21497 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 73 | lost | -73 | -21502 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 81 | lost | -81 | -21429 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.00 | 91 | lost | -91 | -21347 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 101 | lost | -101 | -21257 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 101 | won | +1 | -21156 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Team avice | 1.01 | 100 | won | +1 | -21157 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 100 | won | +1 | -21158 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 100 | won | +3 | -21159 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 35 | lost | -35 | -21162 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -21127 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -21088 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | GLYPH | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -21089 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 43 | lost | -43 | -21089 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 2.00 | 39 | won | +39 | -21046 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -21085 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 38 | won | +13 | -21086 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.