Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+218u
ROI
+8.8%
win rate
62%
bets
128
drawdown
15.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+40u
period 2top-up-16u
period 1profit withdrawn+195u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +1121 | +10.2% | 36% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +545 | +9.2% | 28.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +218 | +8.8% | 15.6% | Selected |
| Martingale | 128 | 62% | +132 | +4.2% | 55.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 128 | 62% | +110 | +8.6% | 8.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +110 | +8.7% | 8.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 1.40 | 21 | won | +8 | 1218 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | Shadow Dance | 1.83 | 20 | won | +17 | 1210 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stariy_bog Team | 1.88 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1193 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | Shadow Dance | 1.88 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1214 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 21 | won | +11 | 1235 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 21 | won | +17 | 1224 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 20 | won | +14 | 1207 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 20 | won | +14 | 1193 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1178 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 20 | won | +14 | 1199 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.88 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1185 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | Aurora Gaming | 1.86 | 20 | won | +17 | 1206 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 20 | won | +14 | 1188 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 20 | won | +17 | 1174 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | Team Synapse | 1.85 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1157 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.66 | 20 | won | +13 | 1177 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1164 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 20 | won | +14 | 1184 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | MOUZ | 1.77 | 20 | won | +15 | 1170 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 19 | won | +17 | 1155 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | Yellow Submarine | 1.63 | 19 | won | +12 | 1138 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1126 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1145 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 19 | won | +17 | 1165 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.87 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1148 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1168 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 21 | lost | -21 | 1188 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 20 | won | +15 | 1209 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | OG | 1.76 | 20 | won | +15 | 1194 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1179 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | Team Yandex | 1.46 | 20 | won | +9 | 1199 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1190 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 20 | won | +17 | 1210 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1192 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Spirit | 1.75 | 20 | won | +15 | 1213 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.69 | 20 | won | +14 | 1198 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Daxak Team | 1.63 | 20 | won | +12 | 1184 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | Stray Team | 1.74 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1172 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1192 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 19 | won | +10 | 1176 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 19 | won | +16 | 1165 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.78 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1149 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1168 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1188 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | GamerLegion | 1.83 | 19 | won | +16 | 1172 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 19 | won | +12 | 1156 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 19 | won | +16 | 1144 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 18 | won | +15 | 1128 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 18 | won | +15 | 1113 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 18 | won | +14 | 1098 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 18 | won | +9 | 1084 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 18 | lost | -18 | 1075 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 18 | won | +13 | 1093 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | Stray Team | 1.78 | 17 | won | +14 | 1080 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Team Nemesis | 1.74 | 17 | won | +13 | 1067 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 17 | won | +15 | 1054 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 17 | won | +11 | 1039 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1028 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | Hokori | 1.78 | 17 | lost | -17 | 1045 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 17 | won | +10 | 1063 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.