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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-10928u
ROI
-29.6%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
1092.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-267u
period 24top-up-170u
period 23top-up-382u
period 22top-up-633u
period 21top-up-551u
period 20top-up-274u
period 19top-up-536u
period 18top-up-574u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2198-37.4%219.8%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6321-29.3%632.1%Select
Flat (10 units)254262%-7383-29%738.3%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10928-29.6%1092.9%Selected
5% of bankroll254262%-18643-30.2%1864.4%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22964-30.7%2296.5%Select
Quarter Kelly9878%-23194-85.5%2319.4%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0215won+0-9928
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0115won+0-9928
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0115won+0-9928
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.0015lost-15-9929
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0015lost-15-9914
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0115won+0-9898
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.0115won+0-9899
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1515won+2-9899
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0115won+0-9901
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.0215won+0-9901
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0115won+0-9901
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0115won+0-9902
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.8015lost-15-9902
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9815won+15-9886
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1215won+2-9901
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0215won+0-9903
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0615won+1-9903
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0015lost-15-9904
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0016lost-16-9889
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0016lost-16-9873
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0016lost-16-9857
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0116won+0-9840
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0017lost-17-9841
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0017lost-17-9824
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.0017lost-17-9807
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0217won+0-9789
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0817won+1-9790
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6018lost-18-9791
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2218won+4-9773
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersPlayTime1.0118won+0-9777
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0018lost-18-9777
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0118won+0-9759
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0318won+1-9760
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResiliencePlayTime1.0618won+1-9760
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0318won+1-9761
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6018lost-18-9762
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG1.0118won+0-9743
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3019lost-19-9744
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0019lost-19-9725
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0119won+0-9706
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5019won+28-9706
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1518won+21-9734
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0018lost-18-9755
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w TeamTeam Falcons1.0818won+1-9736
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0019lost-19-9738
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0019lost-19-9719
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0020lost-20-9699
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2020lost-20-9680
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionBETBOOM Team1.0120won+0-9660
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0120won+0-9660
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.0120won+0-9660
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0320won+1-9660
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.9217lost-17-9661
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0017lost-17-9644
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0117won+0-9627
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHGLYPH1.0117won+0-9627
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5018lost-18-9627
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0017won+17-9610
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0117won+0-9627
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3517won+6-9627
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.