Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-20u
ROI
-10.7%
win rate
50%
bets
2
drawdown
10%
payouts
1
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 1top-up-20u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 2 | 50% | +8 | +25.6% | 1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2 | 50% | -1 | -5.8% | 1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2 | 50% | -1 | -6.2% | 1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2 | 50% | -3 | -6.7% | 2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2 | 50% | -8 | -8.2% | 5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2 | 50% | -20 | -10.7% | 10% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.08.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.88 | 90 | won | +80 | 980 |
| 22.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 100 | lost | -100 | 900 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.