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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+1617u
ROI
+13%
win rate
64%
bets
127
drawdown
28.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+255u
period 2profit withdrawn+34u
period 1profit withdrawn+1328u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12764%+1617+13%28.6%Select
5% of bankroll12764%+801+12.6%20%Select
2% of bankroll12764%+318+12.5%10.6%Select
Martingale12764%+168+5.4%55%Select
1% of bankroll12764%+159+12.5%5.8%Select
Flat (10 units)12764%+158+12.4%5.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 127, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.53119won+642617
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.35132lost-1322553
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54126won+682686
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82116won+962618
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82107won+882522
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.70100won+712434
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7094won+662363
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87104lost-1042297
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6897won+672401
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88108lost-1082335
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.86100won+862443
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6993won+642357
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8986won+762293
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8595lost-952217
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6689won+592312
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6599lost-992253
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7292won+672352
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7786won+662285
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8979won+702219
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6374won+472150
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7582lost-822103
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6691lost-912185
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8684won+722276
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8794lost-942204
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.76104lost-1042298
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85116lost-1162402
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.74108won+802518
01.10.26MOUZ – OGOG1.76100won+762438
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.74115lost-1152362
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.46110won+502476
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88122lost-1222426
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.87112won+982548
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43125lost-1252450
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.75116won+872575
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.69109won+752488
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.63102won+652413
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.74113lost-1132349
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.82105won+862462
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.53100won+532376
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8692won+782323
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.78102lost-1022244
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54113lost-1132346
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.82105won+862460
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8397won+802374
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6491won+582293
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8883won+732235
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8277won+632162
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8171won+582098
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5068won+342041
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7963won+502007
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5370lost-701957
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7265won+472027
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7861won+471980
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7456won+421933
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8752won+451891
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5858lost-581846
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6654won+361904
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7860lost-601868
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.5757won+321928
22.09.26Zero Tenacity – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.8053won+421896
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.