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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+270u
ROI
+10.6%
win rate
63%
bets
129
drawdown
12.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+57u
period 2profit withdrawn+20u
period 1profit withdrawn+193u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12963%+1345+11.3%32.4%Select
5% of bankroll12963%+671+10.8%23.8%Select
2% of bankroll12963%+270+10.6%12.2%Select
Martingale12963%+150+4.7%55.1%Select
Flat (10 units)12963%+135+10.5%6.6%Select
1% of bankroll12963%+135+10.5%6.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 129, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.6121won+131270
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.8821lost-211257
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8321won+171279
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8821lost-211261
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.8221won+171283
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.5421won+111265
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8220won+171254
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7020won+141237
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7020won+141223
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8720lost-201209
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6820won+141229
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8820lost-201216
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8620won+171236
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6920won+141219
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8919won+171205
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8520lost-201188
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6620won+131207
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6520lost-201195
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7220won+141215
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7719won+151200
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8919won+171185
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6319won+121168
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7519lost-191156
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6620lost-201176
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8619won+171195
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8720lost-201179
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7620lost-201199
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8521lost-211219
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.7420won+151239
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMTeam Yandex1.5620won+111224
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7421lost-211213
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4621won+91234
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.8821lost-211224
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8721won+181245
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.4321lost-211227
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7521won+161248
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6921won+141233
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6320won+131219
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7421lost-211206
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8220won+171227
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5320won+111210
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8620won+171199
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7820lost-201182
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5421lost-211202
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8220won+171223
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8320won+171206
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6420won+131190
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8819won+171177
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8219won+161160
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8119won+151145
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7918won+151129
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5018won+91115
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5319lost-191106
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7218won+131124
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7818won+141111
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7418won+131097
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8718won+151084
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5818lost-181069
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6618won+121086
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7818lost-181075
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.