?

Dota 2 match analytics

Model predictions, probabilities and accuracy on real matches
Prediction accuracy
70%
65 of 93 matches
Calibration (Brier)
0.208
the lower, the more honest the probability
Accuracy on favorites
78%
39 of 50 confident
Average favorite odds
1.53
fair, without margin
How we calculate. For each match the model estimates the win probability from player ratings (player-Elo), Glicko-2 rating, form and team experience — using data before the match starts. From the probability we get the "fair odds" (1 / probability): the break-even threshold for a bet. Accuracy and calibration (Brier) are computed on real finished matches. Matches marked value are those where the market odds are above fair, i.e. the bet has positive expected value (edge = odds × probability − 1).
Betting strategies: historical backtest → arrow_forward
Your strategy: Value: edge ≥ 5% · 2% of bankrollits recommendations show up on match pages
AllLive · 6UpcomingPastPrediction hit
Upcoming and live
7
EPL Masters III
14.10 22:00
Zero Tenacity
66%
odds 1.51fair
predictionBO3
Mena Warrios
34%
odds 2.96fair
favorite · Zero Tenacityconfidence 66% · fair odds 1.51bankroll ~3.2%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
15.10 04:00
PlayTime
60%
odds 1.66fair
predictionBO3
Amaru Gaming
40%
odds 2.52fair
favorite · PlayTimeconfidence 60% · fair odds 1.66bankroll ~2.5%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
15.10 07:00
Execration
43%
odds 2.34fair
predictionBO3
Royal Bear
57%
odds 1.75fair
favorite · Royal Bearconfidence 57% · fair odds 1.75bankroll ~2.3%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
15.10 07:00
Direborn Esports
53%
odds 1.90fair
predictionBO3
Team Kinetix
47%
odds 2.11fair
favorite · Direborn Esportsconfidence 53% · fair odds 1.90bankroll ~1.9%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
15.10 07:00
Yakult Brothers
43%
odds 2.30fair
predictionBO3
Zenith
57%
odds 1.77fair
favorite · Zenithconfidence 57% · fair odds 1.77bankroll ~2.2%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
15.10 11:00
Yangon Galacticos
47%
odds 2.14fair
predictionBO3
Ivory
53%
odds 1.88fair
favorite · Ivoryconfidence 53% · fair odds 1.88value +166% · Ivory (odds 5.00)bankroll ~1.9%strategy: Ivory · 20 (2%)draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
15.10 11:00
Xipto Esports
46%
odds 2.19fair
predictionBO3
InterActive Philippines
54%
odds 1.84fair
favorite · InterActive Philippinesconfidence 54% · fair odds 1.84bankroll ~2%draft breakdown →

Dota 2 match analytics and predictions

This section gathers our model's predictions for Dota 2 matches: each team's chance to win the series, the fair odds and a draft breakdown. The prediction is built from pre-match statistics — player ratings (player-Elo), teams' Glicko-2 rating, current form and accumulated experience.

For finished matches we show the original probability and the actual result, and above it — honest quality metrics: prediction accuracy and calibration (Brier). "Fair odds" equal one divided by the probability and mean the threshold above which a bet has positive expected value.