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Dota 2 match analytics

Model predictions, probabilities and accuracy on real matches
Prediction accuracy
71%
62 of 87 matches
Calibration (Brier)
0.203
the lower, the more honest the probability
Accuracy on favorites
79%
37 of 47 confident
Average favorite odds
1.53
fair, without margin
How we calculate. For each match the model estimates the win probability from player ratings (player-Elo), Glicko-2 rating, form and team experience — using data before the match starts. From the probability we get the "fair odds" (1 / probability): the break-even threshold for a bet. Accuracy and calibration (Brier) are computed on real finished matches. Matches marked value are those where the market odds are above fair, i.e. the bet has positive expected value (edge = odds × probability − 1).
Betting strategies: historical backtest → arrow_forward
Your strategy: Value: edge ≥ 5% · 2% of bankrollits recommendations show up on match pages
AllLive · 4UpcomingPastPrediction hit
Upcoming and live
9
EPL Masters III
14.10 16:00
Dawn Bulls
59%
odds 1.69fair
predictionBO3
salamit
41%
odds 2.45fair
favorite · Dawn Bullsconfidence 59% · fair odds 1.69bankroll ~2.4%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
14.10 16:00
CyberHero
54%
odds 1.84fair
predictionBO3
Kalmychata
46%
odds 2.20fair
favorite · CyberHeroconfidence 54% · fair odds 1.84value +46% · Kalmychata (odds 3.20)bankroll ~2%strategy: Kalmychata · 20 (2%)draft breakdown →
Streamers League #3
14.10 16:45
zxcursed Team
44%
odds 2.26fair
predictionBO3
Nix Team
56%
odds 1.80fair
favorite · Nix Teamconfidence 56% · fair odds 1.80value +14% · Nix Team (odds 2.05)bankroll ~2.1%strategy: Nix Team · 20 (2%)draft breakdown →
EPL Masters III
14.10 19:00
Nemiga Gaming
36%
odds 2.76fair
predictionBO3
salamit
64%
odds 1.57fair
favorite · salamitconfidence 64% · fair odds 1.57bankroll ~2.9%draft breakdown →
Streamers League #3
14.10 19:00
By_Owl Team
52%
odds 1.92fair
predictionBO3
Korb3n Team
48%
odds 2.08fair
favorite · By_Owl Teamconfidence 52% · fair odds 1.92value +66% · By_Owl Team (odds 3.20)bankroll ~1.9%strategy: By_Owl Team · 20 (2%)draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
14.10 20:00
Rottweilas LATAM
53%
odds 1.90fair
predictionBO3
Skyreavers
47%
odds 2.11fair
favorite · Rottweilas LATAMconfidence 53% · fair odds 1.90bankroll ~1.9%draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
14.10 20:00
Yellow Submarine
57%
odds 1.76fair
predictionBO3
Power Rangers
43%
odds 2.32fair
favorite · Yellow Submarineconfidence 57% · fair odds 1.76value +51% · Power Rangers (odds 3.50)bankroll ~2.2%strategy: Power Rangers · 20 (2%)draft breakdown →
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации
14.10 20:00
New Growth
48%
odds 2.06fair
predictionBO3
Hokori
52%
odds 1.94fair
favorite · Hokoriconfidence 52% · fair odds 1.94bankroll ~1.8%draft breakdown →
EPL Masters III
14.10 22:00
Zero Tenacity
66%
odds 1.51fair
predictionBO3
Mena Warrios
34%
odds 2.96fair
favorite · Zero Tenacityconfidence 66% · fair odds 1.51bankroll ~3.2%draft breakdown →

Dota 2 match analytics and predictions

This section gathers our model's predictions for Dota 2 matches: each team's chance to win the series, the fair odds and a draft breakdown. The prediction is built from pre-match statistics — player ratings (player-Elo), teams' Glicko-2 rating, current form and accumulated experience.

For finished matches we show the original probability and the actual result, and above it — honest quality metrics: prediction accuracy and calibration (Brier). "Fair odds" equal one divided by the probability and mean the threshold above which a bet has positive expected value.