Dota 2 match analytics

How we calculate. For each match the model estimates the win probability from player ratings (player-Elo), Glicko-2 rating, form and team experience — using data before the match starts. From the probability we get the "fair odds" (1 / probability): the break-even threshold for a bet. Accuracy and calibration (Brier) are computed on real finished matches. Matches marked value are those where the market odds are above fair, i.e. the bet has positive expected value (edge = odds × probability − 1).