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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Zeroloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 30 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 27 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%

Team Zero

Lion
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
zzq · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 9 games
67%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
7e · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
BEYOND · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 709 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 619 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 755 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1043 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Zero
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total76% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Azure Ray 63%Team Zero 37%
The model gave 63% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
56% · 86 games58% · 123 games
BrewmasterBEYOND
Brewmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
44% · 165 games49% · 34 games
Clinkzpoyoyo
Clinkz
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
52% · 164 games48% · 104 games
Slardar7e
Slardar
Phoenix
Phoenixfy
44% · 150 games47% · 215 games
RubickPonlo
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman天命
46% · 39 games55% · 128 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Azure Ray 63%Team Zero 37%
The model gave 63% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
49% · 79 games53% · 87 games
Muertapoyoyo
Muerta
Sand King
Sand KingOri
29% · 3 games54% · 167 games
Dragon Knight7e
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixFaith_bian
40% · 206 games69% · 26 games
UnderlordBEYOND
Underlord
Tiny
Tinyfy
46% · 192 games46% · 122 games
SnapfirePonlo
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern天命
48% · 35 games57% · 113 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct33:15
Azure Ray 66%Team Zero 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOri
55% · 129 games53% · 123 games
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
Weaverlou
55% · 148 games46% · 89 games
Razorpoyoyo
Razor
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
44% · 61 game42% · 38 games
Earth Spirit7e
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinfy
37% · 11 games54% · 90 games
Dark WillowPonlo
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern天命
46% · 42 games51% · 51 game
Chenzzq
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 76%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3