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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 19 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 18 games
72%

Thunder Awaken

Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Michael · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
46%
Doom
Doomsignature
ILICH- · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
770 picks · 604 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 451 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 380 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
420 picks · 976 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 676 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
398 picks · 593 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 918 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total81% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
Evil Geniuses 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPakazs
45% · 76 games55% · 188 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChris Luck
45% · 81 game54% · 282 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
47% · 170 games55% · 33 games
OracleMjz
Oracle
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMatthew
50% · 71 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
40% · 105 games
Game 2prediction correct26:8
Evil Geniuses 70%Thunder Awaken 30%
The model gave 70% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 24:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePakazs
50% · 76 games52% · 170 games
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
Naga Siren
Snapfire
SnapfireChris Luck
49% · 163 games48% · 176 games
Chaos KnightILICH-
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
55% · 160 games46% · 302 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Silencer
SilencerPanda
48% · 95 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
56% · 154 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 81%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2