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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASAKURAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 13 games
38%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 12 games
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
55%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 782 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 943 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 201 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 614 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
449 picks · 338 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 693 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 201 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
429 picks · 737 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:35
MarsBet Team 42%ASAKURA 58%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 55:31.
Game 2prediction correct11:23
MarsBet Team 42%ASAKURA 58%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 32:23.
Game 3prediction missed38:17
MarsBet Team 42%ASAKURA 58%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 42:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 58%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3