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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
93%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ori · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Paparazi · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 9 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 7 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
855 picks · 602 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
614 picks · 425 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
511 picks · 822 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
458 picks · 946 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
457 picks · 316 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 294 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total70% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Team Aster 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMonet
41% · 161 game46% · 81 game
Wraith KingGhost
Wraith King
Doom
DoomXxs
46% · 236 games49% · 179 games
LeshracPaparazi
Leshrac
Puck
PuckXwy
53% · 234 games55% · 55 games
Dark SeerJT-
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
46% · 243 games53% · 672 games
TinyKaka
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
53% · 378 games57% · 265 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed17:23
Team Aster 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
56% · 177 games44% · 103 games
Naga SirenGhost
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckXwy
51% · 225 games45% · 210 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Lycan
LycanXxs
52% · 77 games49% · 229 games
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
47% · 187 games53% · 288 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
53% · 210 games51% · 46 games
LionKaka
Lion
Game 3prediction missed20:20
Team Aster 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMonet
51% · 112 games52% · 102 games
UrsaGhost
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
57% · 163 games46% · 90 games
LycanJT-
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
50% · 164 games42% · 253 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Io
IoBoBoKa
45% · 77 games51% · 233 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
57% · 186 games48% · 24 games
LionKaka
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 70%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3