Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Boxi · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
miCKe · 6 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 6 games
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Mirana
Boxi · 5 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 12 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 10 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 7 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
534 picks · 380 bans
Mars
454 picks · 643 bans
Queen of Pain
429 picks · 522 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 851 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
332 picks · 531 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 524 bans
Wraith King
272 picks · 302 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:14
Team Liquid 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenMATUMBAMAN
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Timbersawzai
Ember SpiritBOOM
InvokermiCKe
MarsAce
WeaverBoxi
Treant ProtectorSeleri
DisruptoriNSaNiA
IotOfu
Game 2prediction missed33:13
Team Liquid 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMATUMBAMAN
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Queen of PainmiCKe
TimbersawAce
Bloodseekerzai
PuckBOOM
IoBoxi
WeavertOfu
DisruptoriNSaNiA
BaneSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2