Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Rubick
Michael · 14 games
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
Tinysignature
Michael · 13 games
Snapfire
Accel · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 10 games
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 500 bans
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1154 bans
Doom
466 picks · 861 bans
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 1068 bans
Pangolier
402 picks · 858 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 569 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total54% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
Thunder Awaken 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 47:19.
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Thunder Awaken 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 39:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 54%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2