Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
King Of Kingsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 7 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 7 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 7 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
532 picks · 380 bans
Mars
455 picks · 647 bans
Queen of Pain
430 picks · 519 bans
Weaver
414 picks · 851 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 180 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 521 bans
Kunkka
331 picks · 533 bans
Wraith King
270 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)86% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% King Of Kings
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:3
Thunder Awaken 87%King Of Kings 13%
The model gave 87% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:42.
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Thunder Awaken 87%King Of Kings 13%
The model gave 87% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 43:47.
Game 3prediction correct24:4
Thunder Awaken 87%King Of Kings 13%
The model gave 87% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 23:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 87%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3