Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-95.7%
win rate
11%
bets
9
drawdown
100%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 9 | 11% | -1000 | -95.7% | 100% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 154 | 3% | -1318 | -85.8% | 131.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2819 | 4% | -14965 | -89.7% | 1479.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 4833 | 4% | -19792 | -88% | 1974.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4833 | 4% | -23502 | -88.3% | 2340.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4833 | 4% | -24787 | -88.9% | 2456.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 4833 | 4% | -24965 | -90.9% | 2496.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 9, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.08.24 | AVULUS – Natus Vincere Junior | Natus Vincere Junior | 10.00 | 385 | lost | -385 | 0 |
| 22.08.24 | nouns – Tundra Esports | nouns | 11.00 | 320 | lost | -320 | 385 |
| 22.08.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – BETBOOM Team | Gaimin Gladiators | 14.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | 705 |
| 22.08.24 | Team Spirit – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 13.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 865 |
| 22.08.24 | Cloud9 – G2 Invictus Gaming | G2 Invictus Gaming | 5.80 | 40 | lost | -40 | 945 |
| 21.08.24 | BETBOOM Team – Tundra Esports | BETBOOM Team | 6.30 | 20 | lost | -20 | 985 |
| 21.08.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – nouns | Gaimin Gladiators | 5.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1005 |
| 21.08.24 | Team Falcons – G2 Invictus Gaming | Team Falcons | 2.25 | 20 | won | +25 | 1015 |
| 21.08.24 | Team Spirit – Cloud9 | Cloud9 | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.