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Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

profit
-24966u
ROI
-94.1%
win rate
2%
bets
4519
drawdown
2496.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-1000u
period 24top-up-1000u
period 23top-up-1000u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-1000u
period 20top-up-1000u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
Flat (10 units)1532%-1330-87.2%133%Select
1% of bankroll45382%-19694-92.7%1969.4%Select
2% of bankroll45382%-23478-93.2%2347.8%Select
5% of bankroll45382%-24798-94.2%2479.8%Select
Quarter Kelly45192%-24966-94.1%2496.6%Selected
10% of bankroll45382%-24969-93.8%2496.9%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4519, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.000lost-0-23966
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23966
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.000lost-0-23966
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.000lost-0-23966
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23966
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.000lost-0-23966
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.000lost-0-23966
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.800lost-0-23966
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.300lost-0-23966
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23966
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23966
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.300lost-0-23966
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23966
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.000lost-0-23966
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23966
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.400lost-0-23966
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.600lost-0-23966
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.000lost-0-23966
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.000lost-0-23966
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.200lost-0-23965
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.200lost-0-23965
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.800lost-0-23965
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.000lost-0-23965
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.800lost-0-23965
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.500lost-0-23965
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.400lost-0-23965
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23965
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.000lost-0-23965
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23965
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23965
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.000lost-0-23964
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.500lost-0-23964
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.000lost-0-23964
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.000lost-0-23964
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.000lost-0-23964
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.000lost-0-23964
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.300lost-0-23963
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.000lost-0-23963
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.000lost-0-23963
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.000lost-0-23962
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.000lost-0-23962
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.000lost-0-23962
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.001lost-1-23962
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.001lost-1-23961
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.001lost-1-23960
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.001lost-1-23960
09.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – Ilbirs eSportsRune Eaters Arise6.000won+2-23959
09.08.26Zero Tenacity – Natus VincereZero Tenacity14.000lost-0-23961
09.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Rune EatersIlbirs eSports14.001lost-1-23961
09.08.26Level UP – MOUZMOUZ10.001lost-1-23961
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.