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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1185u
ROI
-10.8%
win rate
44%
bets
1103
drawdown
117.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1top-up-185u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale43645%-235-1.3%67.5%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Selected
1% of bankroll554643%-3079-8.1%300.7%Select
2% of bankroll554643%-4521-8.1%428.2%Select
5% of bankroll554643%-6235-9%540.1%Select
10% of bankroll554643%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1103, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
29.05.26HAVU – aAaaAa2.126lost-6-185
29.05.26Nemiga – ex-RUBYex-RUBY2.1210lost-10-180
29.05.26Rune Eaters – DNKRune Eaters2.127won+8-170
29.05.26Omega – Dark MoonDark Moon2.1410lost-10-178
29.05.26HOTU – PCIFICPCIFIC2.0010lost-10-168
29.05.26DEPO – Game PointGame Point2.0310lost-10-158
29.05.26TNC – Young NinjasYoung Ninjas2.5110won+15-148
29.05.26M80 – VocaM802.2010won+12-163
29.05.26GameHunters – FluxoGameHunters1.9910lost-10-175
29.05.26ShindeN – ImperialShindeN2.0710won+11-165
29.05.26Bounty Hunters – BlackBeltBlackBelt2.5710lost-10-176
28.05.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – SharksNinjas in Pyjamas2.179won+11-166
28.05.26TNC – Young NinjasYoung Ninjas2.3410lost-10-176
28.05.26ARCRED – Virtus.proVirtus.pro1.8910won+9-166
28.05.26magic – FaZeFaZe2.1110lost-10-175
28.05.26WW – ex-RUBYWW2.548won+12-165
28.05.26KOLESIE – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.124won+4-178
28.05.26BESTIA – GalorysBESTIA2.0410lost-10-182
28.05.26Phantom – AtreidesPhantom2.0010lost-10-172
28.05.26Betclic – Eternal FireBetclic2.5510lost-10-162
28.05.26Nemesis – TDKNemesis1.9710lost-10-152
28.05.26Johnny Speeds – OramondJohnny Speeds1.9510lost-10-142
28.05.26Nuclear TigeRES – K27K272.4010lost-10-132
28.05.261win – AM1win2.0410lost-10-122
28.05.26Young Ninjas – HonvédYoung Ninjas1.9710won+10-112
28.05.2625 cents – LP25 cents2.6210lost-10-121
28.05.26KOLESIE – GenOneKOLESIE2.1910won+12-111
28.05.26HEROIC Academy – aAaHEROIC Academy1.9010won+9-123
28.05.26illwill – fnaticillwill2.0210lost-10-132
28.05.26HEROIC – 9zHEROIC2.1810lost-10-122
28.05.26Enjoy – brazylijski luzbrazylijski luz1.9210lost-10-112
28.05.26NEW VISION – G2 AresNEW VISION2.1010lost-10-102
28.05.26Young Ninjas – WAZABIWAZABI2.0310won+10-92
28.05.26TYLOO – SemperFiSemperFi2.2610lost-10-103
28.05.26K27 – Virtus.proK272.1610lost-10-93
28.05.26ex-RUBY – OmegaOmega2.5310won+15-83
28.05.26Oramond – EntropyEntropy2.0110lost-10-98
28.05.26Tricked – Just PlayersTricked2.0210lost-10-88
28.05.26Hashiras – MisaHashiras1.8910lost-10-78
28.05.26aAa – UNiTYaAa2.2110lost-10-68
28.05.26Gentle Mates – GenOneGentle Mates2.3410won+13-58
28.05.26TNC – HonvédHonvéd2.1710lost-10-71
28.05.26Vexar – DripmenDripmen2.1410lost-10-61
28.05.26brazylijski luz – Young NinjasYoung Ninjas2.1610won+12-51
28.05.263DMAX – Alliance3DMAX2.0910lost-10-63
28.05.26Ursa – OramondUrsa2.1810won+12-53
28.05.26Nuclear TigeRES – ARCREDARCRED2.1110won+11-65
28.05.26Acend – Just PlayersAcend1.9710lost-10-76
28.05.26FOKUS – UrsaUrsa2.2110lost-10-66
28.05.26Betclic – GenOneBetclic2.4910lost-10-56
28.05.26Phantom – TNCPhantom1.9410lost-10-46
28.05.26Project 91 – WAZABIProject 912.1710won+12-36
28.05.26INOX Division – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.3910lost-10-47
28.05.26Chicken Coop – VocaChicken Coop2.0410lost-10-37
28.05.26Fluxo – BlackBeltFluxo2.1010won+11-27
27.05.26Young Ninjas – Project 91Project 912.0110lost-10-38
27.05.26Bounty Hunters – GameHuntersGameHunters3.2510won+22-28
27.05.26BET-M – Virtus.proBET-M2.0510lost-10-51
27.05.26ex-RUBY – ASTRALASTRAL2.3410lost-10-41
27.05.26Eternal Fire – fnaticfnatic2.0310lost-10-31
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.