?

Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-794u
ROI
-3.2%
win rate
47%
bets
2448
drawdown
90.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-393u
period 3profit withdrawn+17u
period 2top-up-416u
period 1top-up-1u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale73249%+735+2.6%71.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
1% of bankroll244847%-759-3.5%82.6%Select
Flat (10 units)244847%-794-3.2%90.5%Selected
2% of bankroll244847%-1445-3.7%135%Select
5% of bankroll244847%-2997-4.5%207.9%Select
10% of bankroll244847%-3920-5.7%259.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2448, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Lavked – ENCELavked1.9610lost-10206
20.08.26LPH – WBTLPH2.0010lost-10216
20.08.26mellren – Bushido Wildcatsmellren2.4610won+15226
20.08.26FaZe – VitalityVitality2.1510won+11212
20.08.26B8 – SpiritB82.3710lost-10200
20.08.26Metizport – ColorMetizport1.9210won+9210
20.08.26OG – SPARTASPARTA2.0210lost-10201
20.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – benched godsbenched gods2.0210won+10211
20.08.26Honvéd – SAW YoungstersSAW Youngsters2.1710lost-10201
20.08.26Lavked – UNiTYLavked1.9510lost-10211
20.08.26Natus Vincere – LegacyLegacy1.9010won+9221
20.08.26Falcons – The MongolZThe MongolZ2.4910lost-10212
20.08.26ex-Sashi Academy – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9610won+10222
20.08.26G2 Ares – BebopBebop1.9810lost-10212
20.08.26Bushido Wildcats – RaccoonsRaccoons2.3510lost-10222
19.08.26GamerLegion – MOUZGamerLegion2.4110lost-10232
19.08.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA2.0210won+10242
19.08.26Permitta – Falcons ForceFalcons Force1.9810won+10232
19.08.26Honvéd – Bushido WildcatsHonvéd2.8110won+18222
19.08.26The Last Resort – OGThe Last Resort1.9810lost-10204
19.08.26PCIFIC – SPARTASPARTA1.9910won+10214
19.08.26Metizport – Fire FluxMetizport1.9210won+9204
19.08.26EAC – ColorColor2.0110won+10195
19.08.26Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRITDrip Too Hard2.1610lost-10185
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9810won+10195
19.08.26G2 – AstralisAstralis2.0610lost-10185
19.08.26Black Phoenix – Bushido WildcatsBlack Phoenix2.7810won+18195
19.08.26Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1710won+12177
19.08.26Permitta – EACPermitta2.0910lost-10166
19.08.26Lavked – ReviseLavked2.1710won+12176
19.08.26Noir Verse – ENCENoir Verse2.2010won+12164
19.08.26Misa – The Last ResortMisa2.1910lost-10152
19.08.26Mai Tai – HonvédMai Tai2.5710lost-10162
19.08.26Entropy – Fire FluxEntropy2.1610lost-10172
19.08.26MOUZ NXT – SPARTAMOUZ NXT2.0510lost-10182
19.08.26Black Phoenix – RaccoonsRaccoons1.9510won+9192
19.08.26Misa – ex-Sashi AcademyMisa1.9810lost-10183
19.08.26SAW Youngsters – ex-MANASAW Youngsters1.9210won+9193
19.08.26HYPERSPIRIT – PermittaPermitta2.0110lost-10183
19.08.26G2 Ares – ex-Zero TenacityG2 Ares2.0010lost-10193
19.08.26GenOne – UNiTYUNiTY2.5410lost-10203
19.08.26Bushido Wildcats – Endless JourneyEndless Journey2.7310lost-10213
19.08.26Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT1.9310lost-10223
18.08.26Misa – Strael BoraMisa2.0910won+11233
18.08.26Lavked – HAVUHAVU1.9410won+9222
18.08.26EAC – OGOG2.0610won+11213
18.08.26DONSTU – MOUZ NXTDONSTU2.0210lost-10202
18.08.26Metizport – SPARTAMetizport1.9010won+9212
18.08.26Color – The Last ResortColor1.9110won+9203
18.08.26Omega – EntropyEntropy2.6810won+17194
18.08.26Honvéd – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9710lost-10178
18.08.26Fortress – PermittaFortress2.4310lost-10188
18.08.26Fire Flux – PCIFICPCIFIC1.9610won+10198
18.08.26Entropy – PCIFICEntropy2.1110lost-10188
18.08.26Leo – ex-RUSTECLeo2.0110lost-10198
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexarex-Zero Tenacity2.0110won+10208
18.08.26WBT – Mai TaiMai Tai3.0710lost-10198
18.08.26Bushido Wildcats – MisaMisa3.5010lost-10208
18.08.26Color – MisaMisa2.0610lost-10218
18.08.26Permitta – OGOG1.9410won+9228
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.