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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-4528u
ROI
-8.1%
win rate
43%
bets
5552
drawdown
428.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-805u
period 6top-up-962u
period 5top-up-851u
period 4top-up-148u
period 3top-up-525u
period 2top-up-898u
period 1top-up-338u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale50647%-370-1.8%70.6%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll555243%-3087-8.1%301.4%Select
2% of bankroll555243%-4528-8.1%428.8%Selected
5% of bankroll555243%-6236-9%540.2%Select
10% of bankroll555243%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5552, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Falcons – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.904lost-4-3528
14.10.26Bushido Wildcats – BAKSBAKS1.994won+4-3524
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.574lost-4-3527
14.10.26ex-RUSTEC – mellrenmellren2.024lost-4-3524
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.424lost-4-3519
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.934lost-4-3515
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.194lost-4-3511
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.674won+7-3507
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.054won+4-3514
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.904lost-4-3518
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.414won+6-3514
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.214lost-4-3520
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.094won+4-3515
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.784lost-4-3520
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.014lost-4-3516
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.294won+5-3512
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.114lost-4-3517
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.904lost-4-3513
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoLiquid1.934won+4-3508
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersWalczaki2.454lost-4-3512
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.044lost-4-3508
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.164lost-4-3504
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.305lost-5-3499
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.905lost-5-3495
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.045won+5-3490
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.115lost-5-3495
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.995lost-5-3490
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.105lost-5-3485
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademyBAKS2.245won+6-3480
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.955lost-5-3486
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.965won+5-3481
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.125won+5-3486
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.265lost-5-3491
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.185lost-5-3486
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.355lost-5-3482
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.015lost-5-3477
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.695lost-5-3472
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.955lost-5-3467
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.715won+9-3461
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.095lost-5-3470
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.685lost-5-3465
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.185won+6-3460
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.185lost-5-3466
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.995lost-5-3460
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.455lost-5-3455
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.046lost-6-3450
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.075won+6-3444
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.025won+5-3450
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.545lost-5-3455
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.975won+5-3450
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.045lost-5-3455
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.065won+6-3450
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.965lost-5-3455
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.965won+5-3450
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.185lost-5-3455
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEWildcard1.905won+5-3449
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.615lost-5-3454
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.096lost-6-3449
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.125won+11-3443
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds1.995won+5-3455
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.