Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+735u
ROI
+2.6%
win rate
49%
bets
732
drawdown
71.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+1735u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 732 | 49% | +735 | +2.6% | 71.8% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -759 | -3.5% | 82.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2448 | 47% | -794 | -3.2% | 90.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -1445 | -3.7% | 135% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -2997 | -4.5% | 207.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -3920 | -5.7% | 259.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 732, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08.06.26 | MIBR – B8 | MIBR | 2.06 | 612 | lost | -612 | 1735 |
| 08.06.26 | brazylijski luz – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.10 | 640 | lost | -640 | 2346 |
| 08.06.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.17 | 320 | lost | -320 | 2986 |
| 08.06.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – INOX Division | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.97 | 160 | lost | -160 | 3306 |
| 08.06.26 | Rooster – MARKandLARRY | MARKandLARRY | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 3466 |
| 08.06.26 | Abyssal – MGLBROS | MGLBROS | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 3546 |
| 08.06.26 | PsychoFace – brazylijski luz | PsychoFace | 2.19 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3586 |
| 08.06.26 | KOLESIE – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3606 |
| 08.06.26 | Leo – HYPERSPIRIT | Leo | 2.09 | 20 | won | +22 | 3616 |
| 08.06.26 | Chicken Coop – Third Prime | Third Prime | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3595 |
| 07.06.26 | G2 – FUT | FUT | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 3605 |
| 07.06.26 | WBT – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.03 | 160 | won | +164 | 3595 |
| 07.06.26 | GenOne – BIG Academy | BIG Academy | 2.01 | 80 | lost | -80 | 3431 |
| 07.06.26 | Spirit – 9z | 9z | 2.10 | 40 | lost | -40 | 3511 |
| 07.06.26 | TDK – INOX Division | INOX Division | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3551 |
| 07.06.26 | B8 – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3571 |
| 07.06.26 | eSuba – LPH | LPH | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 3581 |
| 07.06.26 | FlyQuest – paiN | paiN | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 3572 |
| 07.06.26 | BetBoom – M80 | BetBoom | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 3563 |
| 07.06.26 | Betclic – Spirit Academy | Betclic | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3544 |
| 07.06.26 | Acend – Phantom | Phantom | 1.90 | 20 | won | +18 | 3554 |
| 07.06.26 | Lilmix – NEW VISION | Lilmix | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3536 |
| 07.06.26 | ARCRED – Walczaki | Walczaki | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 3546 |
| 07.06.26 | CYBERSHOKE – SHISHKA | SHISHKA | 2.19 | 10 | won | +12 | 3534 |
| 07.06.26 | MIBR – BIG | BIG | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 3522 |
| 07.06.26 | Monte – Legacy | Monte | 2.11 | 40 | won | +44 | 3513 |
| 07.06.26 | Astralis – TYLOO | Astralis | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3468 |
| 07.06.26 | Virtus.pro – GenOne | GenOne | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3488 |
| 07.06.26 | ENCE – brazylijski luz | brazylijski luz | 1.93 | 80 | won | +74 | 3498 |
| 07.06.26 | BIPT – ZUFE | ZUFE | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 3424 |
| 07.06.26 | SPARTA – AM | SPARTA | 2.25 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3464 |
| 07.06.26 | KOLESIE – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 2.17 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3484 |
| 07.06.26 | Betclic – Atreides | Betclic | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 3494 |
| 07.06.26 | Atreides – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.01 | 40 | won | +40 | 3483 |
| 07.06.26 | Club 333 – raisedbypixels | raisedbypixels | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3442 |
| 07.06.26 | Wanted Goons – Brahmas | Wanted Goons | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3462 |
| 07.06.26 | LAG – Villainous | Villainous | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 3472 |
| 06.06.26 | Spirit – MIBR | Spirit | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 3463 |
| 06.06.26 | B8 – M80 | M80 | 2.05 | 10 | won | +11 | 3453 |
| 06.06.26 | BetBoom – GamerLegion | BetBoom | 2.11 | 20 | won | +22 | 3443 |
| 06.06.26 | Legacy – FlyQuest | FlyQuest | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3421 |
| 06.06.26 | OLDBOYS PL – bankaPEPSI | OLDBOYS PL | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 3431 |
| 06.06.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – AM | AM | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3412 |
| 06.06.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – BIG Academy | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.25 | 40 | won | +50 | 3422 |
| 06.06.26 | paiN – BIG | paiN | 1.94 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3372 |
| 06.06.26 | G2 – Monte | Monte | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3392 |
| 06.06.26 | Johnny Speeds – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 3402 |
| 06.06.26 | Astralis – 9z | 9z | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 3393 |
| 06.06.26 | FUT – TYLOO | FUT | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 3383 |
| 06.06.26 | TDK – Walczaki | Walczaki | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3362 |
| 06.06.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 3372 |
| 06.06.26 | Leo – NEW VISION | Leo | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 3362 |
| 06.06.26 | Spirit – BetBoom | Spirit | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 3353 |
| 06.06.26 | ex-RUBY – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 3344 |
| 06.06.26 | Monte – BIG | Monte | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 3332 |
| 06.06.26 | G2 – M80 | G2 | 2.04 | 20 | won | +21 | 3323 |
| 06.06.26 | paiN – TYLOO | paiN | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3302 |
| 06.06.26 | FUT – B8 | FUT | 2.34 | 80 | won | +107 | 3312 |
| 06.06.26 | ARCRED – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 2.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 3204 |
| 06.06.26 | aAa – GenOne | aAa | 2.69 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3244 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.