Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-361u
ROI
-2%
win rate
45%
bets
396
drawdown
70.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+639u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 396 | 45% | -361 | -2% | 70.1% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 1103 | 44% | -1185 | -10.8% | 117.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 5548 | 43% | -3077 | -8.1% | 301% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 5548 | 43% | -4519 | -8.1% | 428.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 5548 | 43% | -6235 | -9% | 540.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 5548 | 43% | -6930 | -10.2% | 522.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 396, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.05.26 | UNO MILLE – Isurus | Isurus | 1.96 | 158 | lost | -158 | 639 |
| 05.05.26 | Walczaki – Lavked | Lavked | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 798 |
| 05.05.26 | GenOne – HAVU | HAVU | 2.10 | 80 | lost | -80 | 958 |
| 05.05.26 | INOX Division – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.94 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1038 |
| 05.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – RBLS | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.07 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1078 |
| 05.05.26 | AM – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1098 |
| 05.05.26 | Aurora Young Blud – Lilmix | Lilmix | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 1108 |
| 05.05.26 | TDK – Famalicão | TDK | 2.10 | 20 | won | +22 | 1098 |
| 05.05.26 | Clutchain fe – Dripmen | Clutchain fe | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1076 |
| 05.05.26 | MOUZ NXT – Bebop | MOUZ NXT | 2.02 | 20 | won | +20 | 1086 |
| 05.05.26 | Phantom – GenOne | GenOne | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1066 |
| 05.05.26 | ELITES – DAMAJUANA | DAMAJUANA | 1.89 | 160 | won | +143 | 1076 |
| 04.05.26 | m4rk – sjuush | sjuush | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 933 |
| 04.05.26 | Bounty Hunters – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 2.02 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1013 |
| 04.05.26 | Players – FURIA fe | FURIA fe | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1053 |
| 04.05.26 | sjuush – D0cC | D0cC | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1073 |
| 04.05.26 | m4rk – sdy | m4rk | 1.95 | 227 | won | +217 | 1083 |
| 04.05.26 | sdy – cairne | cairne | 1.89 | 640 | lost | -640 | 866 |
| 04.05.26 | GenOne – aAa | aAa | 2.17 | 320 | lost | -320 | 1506 |
| 04.05.26 | HEROIC Academy – The Last Resort | HEROIC Academy | 2.25 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1826 |
| 04.05.26 | Walczaki – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.05 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1986 |
| 04.05.26 | Crashers – ALZON | Crashers | 2.01 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2066 |
| 04.05.26 | MOUZ NXT – Ursa | MOUZ NXT | 2.18 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2106 |
| 04.05.26 | Lavked – Phantom | Phantom | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2126 |
| 04.05.26 | M1X KS – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 2136 |
| 04.05.26 | BRUTE – Atreides | BRUTE | 2.01 | 20 | won | +20 | 2127 |
| 04.05.26 | INFURITY – BIG Academy | INFURITY | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2107 |
| 04.05.26 | HAVU – RBLS | RBLS | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 2117 |
| 04.05.26 | TNC – UNiTY | TNC | 2.08 | 20 | won | +22 | 2108 |
| 04.05.26 | AaB – aAa | aAa | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2087 |
| 04.05.26 | CYBERSHOKE – megoshort | CYBERSHOKE | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 2097 |
| 04.05.26 | benched gods – playersclub | benched gods | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 2087 |
| 04.05.26 | BIG Academy – Imperial Academy | Imperial Academy | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 2078 |
| 04.05.26 | Ursa – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.26 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2060 |
| 04.05.26 | FAVBET – Bebop | FAVBET | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 2070 |
| 04.05.26 | Wildcard – M80 | M80 | 2.42 | 10 | won | +14 | 2061 |
| 04.05.26 | Wildcard – Voca | Voca | 2.51 | 10 | won | +15 | 2047 |
| 04.05.26 | M80 – Zomblers | M80 | 2.08 | 160 | won | +172 | 2032 |
| 04.05.26 | Keyd Stars – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1859 |
| 04.05.26 | Fluxo – Fake do Biru | Fluxo | 1.96 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1939 |
| 04.05.26 | Imperial – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1979 |
| 03.05.26 | Wildcard – Aether | Aether | 2.40 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1999 |
| 03.05.26 | UNO MILLE – Keyd Stars | UNO MILLE | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 2009 |
| 03.05.26 | Yawara – UNO MILLE | Yawara | 2.09 | 10 | won | +11 | 2000 |
| 03.05.26 | TNC – megoshort | megoshort | 2.04 | 10 | won | +10 | 1989 |
| 03.05.26 | Natus Vincere – Vitality | Vitality | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1979 |
| 03.05.26 | Nemesis – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1961 |
| 03.05.26 | RBLS – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.10 | 10 | won | +11 | 1971 |
| 03.05.26 | Vasco – Players | Vasco | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1960 |
| 03.05.26 | Sharks – 100 Thieves | Sharks | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 1950 |
| 03.05.26 | Phantom – aAa | aAa | 2.19 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1879 |
| 03.05.26 | Oxuji – GenOne | GenOne | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1919 |
| 03.05.26 | Dripmen – NEW VISION | Dripmen | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1939 |
| 03.05.26 | NEXVOID – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 1949 |
| 03.05.26 | Gentle Mates – magic | Gentle Mates | 1.94 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1878 |
| 03.05.26 | ex-RUBY – HAVU | HAVU | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1918 |
| 03.05.26 | Lavked – GenOne | GenOne | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1938 |
| 03.05.26 | BRUTE – benched gods | BRUTE | 2.10 | 10 | won | +11 | 1948 |
| 03.05.26 | AM – The Last Resort | AM | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1937 |
| 03.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – aAa | aAa | 1.89 | 320 | won | +286 | 1928 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.