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Always the favorite

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

profit
+4053u
ROI
+74%
win rate
72%
bets
96
drawdown
6.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Always the favorite

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+44u
period 24profit withdrawn+225u
period 23profit withdrawn+12u
period 22top-up-228u
period 21profit withdrawn+3u
period 20profit withdrawn+147u
period 19profit withdrawn+295u
period 18top-up-58u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll499295%+35782+4.5%24.3%Select
5% of bankroll499295%+14040+4.5%13.4%Select
2% of bankroll499295%+4887+4.5%7.7%Select
Quarter Kelly9672%+4053+74%6.6%Selected
1% of bankroll499295%+2335+4.5%4.7%Select
Martingale499295%+2308+4.4%5.3%Select
Flat (10 units)499295%+2233+4.5%4.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 96, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.85108lost-1085053
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.3514won+55160
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6046lost-465155
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5090won+1355202
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1550won+575066
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0080won+805009
31.07.26Team Resilience – PlayTimePlayTime1.7010won+74929
25.07.26Yellow Submarine – Nemiga GamingYellow Submarine1.5056won+284922
24.07.26Zero Tenacity – Ilbirs eSportsZero Tenacity1.7213lost-134893
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5267lost-674906
07.07.26Poor Rangers – GamerLegionGamerLegion2.90100won+1904974
12.06.26Mentality Monster – IvoryMentality Monster1.8215won+124784
29.05.26Tundra Esports – GLYPHTundra Esports1.4556won+254771
27.05.26GLYPH – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.5571won+394746
27.05.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.554won+24707
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.2856lost-564705
26.05.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.4085lost-854761
26.05.26PARIVISION – OGPARIVISION1.2221won+54846
20.05.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.8075lost-754841
08.05.26Tundra Esports – 1w TeamTundra Esports1.78102lost-1024916
03.05.26Team Resilience – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.7226won+195018
23.04.26Rune Eaters – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7540lost-405000
06.04.26L1ga Team – Pipsqueak+4L1ga Team1.8532won+275040
04.04.261w Team – VP.Prodigy1w Team1.7256won+405013
02.04.26Roar Gaming – Mideng DreamerMideng Dreamer1.8024lost-244972
25.03.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit2.50100won+1504996
08.03.26Xtreme Gaming – Team NemesisXtreme Gaming1.323won+14847
07.03.26OG – Vici GamingOG1.424lost-44846
19.02.26paiN Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers3.4070won+1684849
18.02.26MOUZ – ExecrationMOUZ1.5552won+294681
18.02.26PARIVISION – OGPARIVISION2.1572won+834652
09.02.26Aurora Gaming – Zero TenacityAurora Gaming1.5281won+424570
06.02.26MOUZ – HeroicMOUZ1.8521won+184528
04.02.26Team Falcons – Team LiquidTeam Falcons1.6245lost-454510
30.01.26Power Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.4234won+144555
28.01.26L1ga Team – AVULUSL1ga Team1.6218won+114541
25.01.26Winter Bear – Rune EatersRune Eaters1.6583lost-834529
02.12.25AVULUS – Passion UAPassion UA2.1532won+374613
11.11.25Team Tidebound – eSpoiledTeam Tidebound1.65103won+674576
10.11.25Zero Tenacity – Most WantedMost Wanted1.658lost-84509
07.11.25Most Wanted – Team TideboundTeam Tidebound1.4515won+74518
06.11.25Team Tidebound – eSpoiledTeam Tidebound1.4251won+224511
04.11.25Team Public – Team TideboundTeam Tidebound1.5277won+404489
18.10.25Tundra Esports – Team AureusTundra Esports1.90108lost-1084450
15.10.25BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team1.9073lost-734557
07.10.251w Team – OG1w Team2.50100won+1504630
03.10.25Passion UA – eSpoiledPassion UA1.751lost-14481
30.09.25Team Lynx – KalmychataKalmychata1.451won+14481
28.09.25Execration – Team AureusTeam Aureus1.8214won+114481
26.09.25Zero Tenacity – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.758won+64469
19.09.25eSpoiled – KalmychataKalmychata1.3027lost-274463
13.09.25BETBOOM Team – HeroicBETBOOM Team1.6050won+304490
21.08.25OG – Passion UAPassion UA1.8226lost-264460
12.08.25Wildcard Gaming – Nemiga GamingWildcard Gaming1.7517lost-174486
28.07.25BETBOOM Team – Team YandexBETBOOM Team1.55159won+884503
25.07.25One Move – AVULUSAVULUS1.9234won+324416
11.07.25Tundra Esports – Team YandexTundra Esports1.65147won+954384
09.07.25PARIVISION – Team LiquidPARIVISION3.10163lost-1634289
09.07.25Heroic – Shopify RebellionHeroic3.10101won+2134452
09.07.25Virtus.pro – Team YandexTeam Yandex2.5028won+424239
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Always the favorite" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.