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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-3100u
ROI
-8.1%
win rate
43%
bets
5559
drawdown
302.7%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-557u
period 6top-up-789u
period 5top-up-591u
period 4top-up-35u
period 3top-up-287u
period 2top-up-663u
period 1top-up-178u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale30547%-998-7.9%99.8%Select
Flat (10 units)110544%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll555943%-3100-8.1%302.7%Select
2% of bankroll555943%-4538-8.1%429.8%Select
5% of bankroll555943%-6236-9%540.2%Select
10% of bankroll555943%-6929-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5559, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FOKUS – YounglingsYounglings2.344lost-4-2100
14.10.26FORZE Reload – LFO 10LFO 102.645lost-5-2095
14.10.26Black Phoenix – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.035lost-5-2091
14.10.26fnatic – HOTUfnatic2.035won+5-2086
14.10.26BET-M – FORZE ReloadBET-M2.135lost-5-2091
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.925won+4-2086
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.985lost-5-2090
14.10.26Falcons – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.905lost-5-2086
14.10.26Bushido Wildcats – BAKSBAKS1.995won+5-2081
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.575lost-5-2086
14.10.26ex-RUSTEC – mellrenmellren2.025lost-5-2081
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.935lost-5-2076
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.425lost-5-2072
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.195lost-5-2067
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.675won+8-2062
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.055won+5-2070
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.905lost-5-2075
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.415won+7-2070
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.215lost-5-2077
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.095won+5-2072
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.785lost-5-2077
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.015lost-5-2072
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.295won+6-2068
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.115lost-5-2074
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.905lost-5-2069
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoLiquid1.935won+4-2064
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersWalczaki2.455lost-5-2069
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.165lost-5-2064
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.045lost-5-2059
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.305lost-5-2054
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.905lost-5-2049
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.045won+5-2044
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.115lost-5-2049
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.995lost-5-2044
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.105lost-5-2039
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademyBAKS2.245won+6-2034
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.955lost-5-2040
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.965won+5-2035
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.125won+6-2040
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.185lost-5-2046
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.265lost-5-2041
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.355lost-5-2036
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.015lost-5-2030
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.695lost-5-2025
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.955lost-5-2020
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.715won+9-2015
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.095lost-5-2024
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.685lost-5-2018
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.185won+6-2013
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.185lost-5-2019
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.455lost-5-2014
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.995lost-5-2009
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.045lost-5-2003
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.075won+6-1998
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.025won+5-2004
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.555lost-5-2009
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.975won+5-2004
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.065won+6-2009
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.045lost-5-2014
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.965lost-5-2009
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.