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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-6234u
ROI
-9%
win rate
43%
bets
5547
drawdown
540.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-989u
period 6top-up-1000u
period 5top-up-996u
period 4top-up-650u
period 3top-up-906u
period 2top-up-999u
period 1top-up-695u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale43645%-235-1.3%67.5%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll554743%-3072-8.1%301%Select
2% of bankroll554743%-4515-8.1%428.4%Select
5% of bankroll554743%-6234-9%540.1%Selected
10% of bankroll554743%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5547, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.421lost-1-5234
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.191lost-1-5234
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.671won+1-5233
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.411won+1-5234
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.051won+1-5235
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.901lost-1-5235
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.211lost-1-5235
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.091won+1-5234
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.781lost-1-5235
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.011lost-1-5234
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.291won+1-5234
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.111lost-1-5234
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.901lost-1-5234
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoLiquid1.931won+1-5233
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersWalczaki2.451lost-1-5234
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.041lost-1-5233
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.161lost-1-5232
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.301lost-1-5232
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.901lost-1-5231
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.041won+1-5230
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.991lost-1-5231
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.111lost-1-5230
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.101lost-1-5229
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademyBAKS2.241won+1-5229
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.961won+1-5230
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.951lost-1-5230
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.121won+1-5230
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.261lost-1-5230
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.181lost-1-5230
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.351lost-1-5229
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.011lost-1-5228
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.691lost-1-5227
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.951lost-1-5226
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.711won+2-5225
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.091lost-1-5226
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.681lost-1-5225
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.181lost-1-5224
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.181won+1-5223
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.451lost-1-5224
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.991lost-1-5223
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.041lost-1-5222
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.071won+1-5221
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.021won+1-5222
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.541lost-1-5223
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.971won+1-5222
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.041lost-1-5223
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.061won+1-5222
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.961lost-1-5223
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.961won+1-5222
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.181lost-1-5223
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEWildcard1.901won+1-5222
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.611lost-1-5223
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.091lost-1-5222
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.121won+2-5221
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds1.991won+1-5223
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.401lost-1-5224
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.641lost-1-5223
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.971lost-1-5222
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.201won+1-5220
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.911won+1-5222
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.