Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-235u
ROI
-1.3%
win rate
45%
bets
436
drawdown
67.5%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+765u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 436 | 45% | -235 | -1.3% | 67.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1103 | 44% | -1185 | -10.8% | 117.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 5547 | 43% | -3072 | -8.1% | 301% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 5547 | 43% | -4515 | -8.1% | 428.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 5547 | 43% | -6234 | -9% | 540.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 5547 | 43% | -6930 | -10.2% | 522.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 436, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08.05.26 | 9INE – Walczaki | 9INE | 2.69 | 25 | lost | -25 | 765 |
| 08.05.26 | SPARTA – ex-RUBY | SPARTA | 2.09 | 40 | lost | -40 | 790 |
| 08.05.26 | TDK – GenOne | GenOne | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 830 |
| 08.05.26 | Imperial – ALZON | ALZON | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 850 |
| 07.05.26 | Fake do Biru – Vasco | Fake do Biru | 1.96 | 40 | won | +38 | 860 |
| 07.05.26 | Betclic – INOX Division | Betclic | 2.44 | 20 | lost | -20 | 822 |
| 07.05.26 | Oxuji – Ursa | Ursa | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 842 |
| 07.05.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – ex-Zero Tenacity | Nuclear TigeRES | 2.02 | 43 | won | +44 | 852 |
| 07.05.26 | Turma do Pagode – BESTIA Academy | BESTIA Academy | 1.96 | 40 | lost | -40 | 808 |
| 07.05.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lavked | MOUZ NXT | 2.41 | 20 | lost | -20 | 848 |
| 07.05.26 | Nemiga – AaB | AaB | 2.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 868 |
| 07.05.26 | BRUTE – NEW VISION | BRUTE | 2.00 | 56 | won | +57 | 878 |
| 07.05.26 | The Last Resort – INOX Division | The Last Resort | 2.19 | 80 | lost | -80 | 821 |
| 07.05.26 | Procyon – Yawara | Procyon | 2.12 | 40 | lost | -40 | 901 |
| 07.05.26 | Tricked – AM | Tricked | 2.26 | 20 | lost | -20 | 941 |
| 07.05.26 | benched gods – M1X KS | M1X KS | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 961 |
| 07.05.26 | HAVU – Famalicão | HAVU | 2.25 | 40 | won | +50 | 971 |
| 07.05.26 | EC BANGA – Atreides | EC BANGA | 2.01 | 20 | lost | -20 | 921 |
| 07.05.26 | Fire Flux – BIG Academy | Fire Flux | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 941 |
| 07.05.26 | UNiTY – Bebop | UNiTY | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 951 |
| 07.05.26 | BESTIA Academy – DAMAJUANA | BESTIA Academy | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 942 |
| 06.05.26 | Isurus – R2 | R2 | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 923 |
| 06.05.26 | TNC – Phantom | TNC | 2.00 | 20 | won | +20 | 933 |
| 06.05.26 | Lavked – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 913 |
| 06.05.26 | ex-RUBY – Oxuji | ex-RUBY | 2.11 | 20 | won | +22 | 923 |
| 06.05.26 | Players – ALZON | Players | 1.94 | 10 | lost | -10 | 901 |
| 06.05.26 | FAVBET – Ursa | FAVBET | 2.01 | 20 | won | +20 | 911 |
| 06.05.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 891 |
| 06.05.26 | AaB – GenOne | AaB | 2.01 | 10 | won | +10 | 901 |
| 06.05.26 | CYBERSHOKE – ASTRAL | CYBERSHOKE | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 891 |
| 06.05.26 | Atreides – Lilmix | Atreides | 1.91 | 20 | won | +18 | 882 |
| 06.05.26 | M1X KS – Dripmen | Dripmen | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 863 |
| 06.05.26 | Ursa – Oxuji | Oxuji | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 873 |
| 06.05.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.11 | 20 | won | +22 | 864 |
| 06.05.26 | Walczaki – RBLS | RBLS | 2.49 | 10 | lost | -10 | 842 |
| 06.05.26 | TNC – Lavked | TNC | 2.26 | 10 | won | +13 | 852 |
| 06.05.26 | BESTIA Academy – Vasco | Vasco | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 839 |
| 05.05.26 | home – EC BANGA | EC BANGA | 2.18 | 10 | won | +12 | 830 |
| 05.05.26 | paiN Academy – R2 | paiN Academy | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 818 |
| 05.05.26 | Omega – UNiTY | Omega | 1.99 | 22 | won | +22 | 809 |
| 05.05.26 | UNO MILLE – Isurus | Isurus | 1.96 | 320 | lost | -320 | 787 |
| 05.05.26 | Walczaki – Lavked | Lavked | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1107 |
| 05.05.26 | GenOne – HAVU | HAVU | 2.10 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1267 |
| 05.05.26 | INOX Division – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.94 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1347 |
| 05.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – RBLS | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.07 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1387 |
| 05.05.26 | AM – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1407 |
| 05.05.26 | Aurora Young Blud – Lilmix | Lilmix | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 1417 |
| 05.05.26 | TDK – Famalicão | TDK | 2.10 | 20 | won | +22 | 1408 |
| 05.05.26 | Clutchain fe – Dripmen | Clutchain fe | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1385 |
| 05.05.26 | MOUZ NXT – Bebop | MOUZ NXT | 2.02 | 20 | won | +20 | 1395 |
| 05.05.26 | Phantom – GenOne | GenOne | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1375 |
| 05.05.26 | ELITES – DAMAJUANA | DAMAJUANA | 1.89 | 160 | won | +143 | 1385 |
| 04.05.26 | m4rk – sjuush | sjuush | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1242 |
| 04.05.26 | Bounty Hunters – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 2.02 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1322 |
| 04.05.26 | Players – FURIA fe | FURIA fe | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1362 |
| 04.05.26 | sjuush – D0cC | D0cC | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1382 |
| 04.05.26 | m4rk – sdy | m4rk | 1.95 | 321 | won | +306 | 1392 |
| 04.05.26 | sdy – cairne | cairne | 1.89 | 640 | lost | -640 | 1086 |
| 04.05.26 | GenOne – aAa | aAa | 2.17 | 320 | lost | -320 | 1726 |
| 04.05.26 | Walczaki – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.05 | 160 | lost | -160 | 2046 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.