Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+2035u
ROI
+7.3%
win rate
49%
bets
735
drawdown
43.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+3035u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 735 | 49% | +2035 | +7.3% | 43.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2450 | 47% | -768 | -3.5% | 83.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2450 | 47% | -810 | -3.3% | 93.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2450 | 47% | -1454 | -3.8% | 136.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2450 | 47% | -3003 | -4.5% | 214% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2450 | 47% | -3926 | -5.7% | 272.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 735, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08.06.26 | MIBR – B8 | MIBR | 2.06 | 700 | lost | -700 | 3035 |
| 08.06.26 | Astralis – paiN | Astralis | 1.89 | 640 | lost | -640 | 3735 |
| 08.06.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.17 | 320 | lost | -320 | 4375 |
| 08.06.26 | brazylijski luz – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.10 | 160 | lost | -160 | 4695 |
| 08.06.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – INOX Division | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.97 | 80 | lost | -80 | 4855 |
| 08.06.26 | Abyssal – MGLBROS | MGLBROS | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 4935 |
| 08.06.26 | Rooster – MARKandLARRY | MARKandLARRY | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4975 |
| 08.06.26 | KOLESIE – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4995 |
| 08.06.26 | Leo – HYPERSPIRIT | Leo | 2.09 | 40 | won | +44 | 5005 |
| 08.06.26 | PsychoFace – brazylijski luz | PsychoFace | 2.19 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4961 |
| 08.06.26 | Chicken Coop – Third Prime | Third Prime | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4981 |
| 07.06.26 | G2 – FUT | FUT | 1.94 | 80 | won | +75 | 4991 |
| 07.06.26 | GenOne – BIG Academy | BIG Academy | 2.01 | 40 | lost | -40 | 4916 |
| 07.06.26 | TDK – INOX Division | INOX Division | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4956 |
| 07.06.26 | Spirit – 9z | 9z | 2.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4976 |
| 07.06.26 | WBT – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 4986 |
| 07.06.26 | B8 – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4965 |
| 07.06.26 | eSuba – LPH | LPH | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 4975 |
| 07.06.26 | FlyQuest – paiN | paiN | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 4966 |
| 07.06.26 | BetBoom – M80 | BetBoom | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 4957 |
| 07.06.26 | Acend – Phantom | Phantom | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 4948 |
| 07.06.26 | CYBERSHOKE – SHISHKA | SHISHKA | 2.19 | 40 | won | +48 | 4939 |
| 07.06.26 | Betclic – Spirit Academy | Betclic | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4891 |
| 07.06.26 | Lilmix – NEW VISION | Lilmix | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4911 |
| 07.06.26 | ARCRED – Walczaki | Walczaki | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 4921 |
| 07.06.26 | MIBR – BIG | BIG | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 4910 |
| 07.06.26 | Monte – Legacy | Monte | 2.11 | 320 | won | +354 | 4900 |
| 07.06.26 | Astralis – TYLOO | Astralis | 1.96 | 160 | lost | -160 | 4546 |
| 07.06.26 | Virtus.pro – GenOne | GenOne | 1.91 | 80 | lost | -80 | 4706 |
| 07.06.26 | KOLESIE – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 2.17 | 40 | lost | -40 | 4786 |
| 07.06.26 | BIPT – ZUFE | ZUFE | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4826 |
| 07.06.26 | SPARTA – AM | SPARTA | 2.25 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4846 |
| 07.06.26 | ENCE – brazylijski luz | brazylijski luz | 1.93 | 10 | won | +9 | 4856 |
| 07.06.26 | Betclic – Atreides | Betclic | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 4847 |
| 07.06.26 | Atreides – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.01 | 40 | won | +40 | 4835 |
| 07.06.26 | Club 333 – raisedbypixels | raisedbypixels | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4795 |
| 07.06.26 | Wanted Goons – Brahmas | Wanted Goons | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4815 |
| 07.06.26 | LAG – Villainous | Villainous | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 4825 |
| 06.06.26 | Spirit – MIBR | Spirit | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 4815 |
| 06.06.26 | B8 – M80 | M80 | 2.05 | 10 | won | +11 | 4806 |
| 06.06.26 | BetBoom – GamerLegion | BetBoom | 2.11 | 20 | won | +22 | 4795 |
| 06.06.26 | Legacy – FlyQuest | FlyQuest | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4773 |
| 06.06.26 | OLDBOYS PL – bankaPEPSI | OLDBOYS PL | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 4783 |
| 06.06.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – AM | AM | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4764 |
| 06.06.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – BIG Academy | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.25 | 40 | won | +50 | 4774 |
| 06.06.26 | paiN – BIG | paiN | 1.94 | 20 | lost | -20 | 4724 |
| 06.06.26 | G2 – Monte | Monte | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4744 |
| 06.06.26 | Johnny Speeds – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 4754 |
| 06.06.26 | Astralis – 9z | 9z | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 4745 |
| 06.06.26 | FUT – TYLOO | FUT | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 4735 |
| 06.06.26 | TDK – Walczaki | Walczaki | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4714 |
| 06.06.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 4724 |
| 06.06.26 | Leo – NEW VISION | Leo | 1.97 | 10 | won | +10 | 4715 |
| 06.06.26 | Spirit – BetBoom | Spirit | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 4705 |
| 06.06.26 | ex-RUBY – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 4696 |
| 06.06.26 | Monte – BIG | Monte | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 4684 |
| 06.06.26 | G2 – M80 | G2 | 2.04 | 20 | won | +21 | 4675 |
| 06.06.26 | paiN – TYLOO | paiN | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4654 |
| 06.06.26 | FUT – B8 | FUT | 2.34 | 80 | won | +107 | 4664 |
| 06.06.26 | ARCRED – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 2.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 4557 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.