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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-4515u
ROI
-8.1%
win rate
43%
bets
5547
drawdown
428.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-793u
period 6top-up-962u
period 5top-up-851u
period 4top-up-148u
period 3top-up-525u
period 2top-up-898u
period 1top-up-338u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale43645%-235-1.3%67.5%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll554743%-3072-8.1%301%Select
2% of bankroll554743%-4515-8.1%428.4%Select
5% of bankroll554743%-6234-9%540.1%Select
10% of bankroll554743%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5547, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.424lost-4-3515
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.194lost-4-3511
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.674won+7-3507
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.414won+6-3514
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.054won+4-3519
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.904lost-4-3524
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.214lost-4-3520
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.094won+4-3515
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.784lost-4-3520
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.014lost-4-3516
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.294won+5-3512
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.114lost-4-3517
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.904lost-4-3513
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoLiquid1.934won+4-3508
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersWalczaki2.454lost-4-3512
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.044lost-4-3508
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.164lost-4-3504
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.305lost-5-3499
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.905lost-5-3495
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.045won+5-3490
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.995lost-5-3495
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.115lost-5-3490
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.105lost-5-3485
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademyBAKS2.245won+6-3480
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.965won+4-3486
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.955lost-5-3491
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.125won+5-3486
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.265lost-5-3491
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.185lost-5-3486
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.355lost-5-3482
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.015lost-5-3477
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.695lost-5-3472
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.955lost-5-3467
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.715won+9-3461
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.095lost-5-3470
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.685lost-5-3465
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.185lost-5-3460
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.185won+6-3454
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.455lost-5-3460
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.995lost-5-3455
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.046lost-6-3450
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.075won+6-3444
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.025won+5-3450
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.545lost-5-3455
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.975won+5-3450
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.045lost-5-3455
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.065won+6-3450
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.965lost-5-3455
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.965won+5-3450
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.185lost-5-3455
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEWildcard1.905won+5-3449
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.615lost-5-3454
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.096lost-6-3449
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.125won+11-3443
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds1.995won+5-3455
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.405lost-5-3460
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.645lost-5-3454
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.976lost-6-3449
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.205won+7-3443
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.915won+5-3450
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.