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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-3073u
ROI
-8.1%
win rate
43%
bets
5542
drawdown
300.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-529u
period 6top-up-789u
period 5top-up-591u
period 4top-up-36u
period 3top-up-287u
period 2top-up-663u
period 1top-up-178u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale43645%-333-1.7%70.5%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll554243%-3073-8.1%300.6%Select
2% of bankroll554243%-4515-8.1%428.1%Select
5% of bankroll554243%-6234-9%540.1%Select
10% of bankroll554243%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.055won+5-2073
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.215lost-5-2078
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.095won+5-2073
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.785lost-5-2078
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.015lost-5-2073
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.295won+6-2069
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.115lost-5-2075
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.905lost-5-2070
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoLiquid1.935won+4-2065
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersWalczaki2.455lost-5-2069
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.165lost-5-2065
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.045lost-5-2060
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.305lost-5-2055
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.905lost-5-2050
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.045won+5-2045
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.115lost-5-2050
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.995lost-5-2045
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.105lost-5-2040
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademyBAKS2.245won+6-2035
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.965won+5-2041
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.955lost-5-2046
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.125won+6-2041
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.185lost-5-2047
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.265lost-5-2042
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.355lost-5-2036
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.015lost-5-2031
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.695lost-5-2026
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.955lost-5-2021
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.715won+9-2016
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.095lost-5-2024
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.685lost-5-2019
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.185lost-5-2014
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.185won+6-2009
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.455lost-5-2015
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.995lost-5-2009
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.075won+6-2004
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.045lost-5-2010
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.025won+5-2004
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.545lost-5-2010
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.975won+5-2004
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.065won+6-2010
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.045lost-5-2015
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.965lost-5-2010
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.965won+5-2004
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.185lost-5-2010
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEWildcard1.905won+5-2004
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.615lost-5-2009
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.095lost-5-2004
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.125won+11-1998
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds1.995won+5-2010
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.405lost-5-2015
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.915won+5-2009
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.975lost-5-2014
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.205won+6-2009
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.645lost-5-2015
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.455won+8-2010
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.975lost-5-2017
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.525lost-5-2012
11.10.26FOKUS – Nordic PartnersNordic Partners2.695won+9-2007
11.10.26Imperial – NRGNRG3.045lost-5-2016
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.