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Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

profit
+50u
ROI
+6.3%
win rate
79%
bets
19
drawdown
14.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+4u
period 24profit withdrawn+25u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22top-up-134u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20top-up-3u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+15u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll468797%+22015+3.3%19.3%Select
5% of bankroll468797%+9391+3.4%14.8%Select
2% of bankroll468797%+3420+3.4%8.8%Select
1% of bankroll468797%+1658+3.4%5.2%Select
Martingale468797%+1650+3.4%6.4%Select
Flat (10 units)468797%+1608+3.4%5.1%Select
Quarter Kelly1979%+50+6.3%14.4%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 19, showing the last 60.
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
13.08.26BETBOOM Team OGBETBOOM Team1.3513won+41050
25.07.26Yellow Submarine Nemiga GamingYellow Submarine1.5051won+251045
29.05.26Tundra Esports GLYPHTundra Esports1.4563won+281020
27.05.26LGD Gaming Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.2867lost-67992
26.05.26BETBOOM Team LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.40101lost-1011058
26.05.26PARIVISION OGPARIVISION1.2224won+51159
08.03.26Xtreme Gaming Team NemesisXtreme Gaming1.323won+11153
07.03.26OG Vici GamingOG1.424lost-41152
30.01.26Power Rangers BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.4236won+151156
07.11.25Most Wanted Team TideboundTeam Tidebound1.4514won+61141
06.11.25Team Tidebound eSpoiledTeam Tidebound1.4249won+211134
30.09.25Team Lynx KalmychataKalmychata1.451won+11114
19.09.25eSpoiled KalmychataKalmychata1.3026lost-261113
08.07.25PARIVISION HeroicPARIVISION1.3292won+291139
21.05.25PARIVISION AVULUSPARIVISION1.3246won+151110
06.05.25PARIVISION Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.5076won+381095
18.01.25Tundra Esports Team SecretTundra Esports1.4823won+111057
12.12.24Natus Vincere Junior AnimeVestaNatus Vincere Junior1.485won+31046
27.11.24OG Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.5086won+431043
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.