Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1200u
ROI
-50.7%
win rate
41%
bets
237
drawdown
120%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 237 | 41% | -1200 | -50.7% | 120% | Selected |
| Martingale | 53 | 32% | -1351 | -55.5% | 135.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -15804 | -52% | 1580.4% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -21220 | -51.6% | 2122% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -24430 | -51.2% | 2443% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2992 | 3% | -24846 | -94.4% | 2484.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -24875 | -51.3% | 2487.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 237, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.09.24 | Nigma Galaxy – Zone Academy | Zone Academy | 9.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -200 |
| 30.09.24 | OG – Natus Vincere Junior | Natus Vincere Junior | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -192 |
| 30.09.24 | Team Spirit – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -182 |
| 30.09.24 | Talon Esports – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -172 |
| 30.09.24 | Azure Ray – Team Zero | Team Zero | 3.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | -162 |
| 30.09.24 | Invictus Gaming – Team Zero | Team Zero | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -152 |
| 30.09.24 | Aurora Gaming – BOOM Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.04 | 10 | won | +0 | -152 |
| 30.09.24 | Heroic – beastcoast | beastcoast | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -153 |
| 30.09.24 | nouns – Shopify Rebellion | Shopify Rebellion | 1.28 | 10 | lost | -10 | -143 |
| 30.09.24 | WINTRADERs – Cuyes Esports | Cuyes Esports | 3.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -133 |
| 29.09.24 | Palianytsia – AVULUS | Palianytsia | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -123 |
| 29.09.24 | Cuyes Esports – Free Stack | Free Stack | 1.48 | 10 | lost | -10 | -113 |
| 29.09.24 | BandaNoone – Virtus.pro | Virtus.pro | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -103 |
| 29.09.24 | Looking for Org – Dibujitos de fb | Dibujitos de fb | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -93 |
| 29.09.24 | difference team – unknown | difference team | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | -83 |
| 29.09.24 | Mouses – GRIN esports | GRIN esports | 1.05 | 10 | won | +1 | -73 |
| 29.09.24 | Passion UA – OG | Passion UA | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -73 |
| 29.09.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – MOUZ | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | -63 |
| 29.09.24 | 1w Team – Team Spirit | 1w Team | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -70 |
| 29.09.24 | L1ga Team – Night Pulse | Night Pulse | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -60 |
| 29.09.24 | Invictus Gaming – Azure Ray | Azure Ray | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -50 |
| 29.09.24 | BOOM Esports – Bruv123 | Bruv123 | 2.40 | 10 | lost | -10 | -50 |
| 29.09.24 | Aurora Gaming – Talon Esports | Aurora Gaming | 5.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | -40 |
| 29.09.24 | OG – Alliance | Alliance | 3.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -30 |
| 29.09.24 | Dragon Esports – MOUZ | Dragon Esports | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -20 |
| 29.09.24 | Team Spirit – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 3.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -10 |
| 29.09.24 | Night Pulse – One Move | Night Pulse | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 0 |
| 29.09.24 | Execration – BOOM Esports | Execration | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 0 |
| 29.09.24 | Team Zero – Evil Rabbit | Team Zero | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 10 |
| 29.09.24 | PlsReportTimber – Bruv123 | PlsReportTimber | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 10 |
| 29.09.24 | BOOM Esports – Team Essence | Team Essence | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 20 |
| 29.09.24 | Looking for Org – WINTRADERs | WINTRADERs | 1.25 | 10 | won | +2 | 30 |
| 28.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – GRIN esports | GRIN esports | 6.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 27 |
| 28.09.24 | Apex Genesis – Mouses | Mouses | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 37 |
| 28.09.24 | Palianytsia – Natus Vincere Junior | Natus Vincere Junior | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 47 |
| 28.09.24 | AVULUS – Passion UA | Passion UA | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 57 |
| 28.09.24 | Virtus.pro – 1w Team | Virtus.pro | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | 67 |
| 28.09.24 | BandaNoone – L1ga Team | BandaNoone | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 67 |
| 28.09.24 | nouns – difference team | difference team | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 67 |
| 28.09.24 | AVULUS – Dragon Esports | Dragon Esports | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 77 |
| 28.09.24 | MOUZ – Passion UA | Passion UA | 2.50 | 10 | won | +15 | 87 |
| 28.09.24 | 1w Team – One Move | 1w Team | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | 72 |
| 28.09.24 | Virtus.pro – Night Pulse | Night Pulse | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 72 |
| 28.09.24 | Aurora Gaming – Team Mantaps | Aurora Gaming | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 82 |
| 28.09.24 | Team Zero – Azure Ray | Team Zero | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 82 |
| 28.09.24 | Invictus Gaming – Spiky Gaming | Spiky Gaming | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 92 |
| 28.09.24 | Execration – Talon Esports | Execration | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 102 |
| 28.09.24 | OG – Palianytsia | OG | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 112 |
| 28.09.24 | Alliance – Natus Vincere Junior | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.05 | 10 | won | +1 | 122 |
| 28.09.24 | Dragon Esports – AVULUS | Dragon Esports | 5.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 121 |
| 28.09.24 | Team Spirit – BandaNoone | BandaNoone | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 131 |
| 28.09.24 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 5.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 131 |
| 28.09.24 | Talon Esports – Bruv123 | Talon Esports | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 141 |
| 28.09.24 | Execration – PlsReportTimber | PlsReportTimber | 4.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 141 |
| 28.09.24 | Evil Rabbit – Spiky Gaming | Evil Rabbit | 2.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 151 |
| 28.09.24 | Team Mantaps – Team Essence | Team Essence | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 161 |
| 27.09.24 | Passion UA – N3X7 | Passion UA | 1.55 | 10 | won | +6 | 171 |
| 27.09.24 | 1w Team – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 1.38 | 10 | won | +4 | 166 |
| 27.09.24 | Palianytsia – Passion UA | Passion UA | 1.22 | 10 | lost | -10 | 162 |
| 27.09.24 | Quantum Team – BandaNoone | BandaNoone | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 172 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.