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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-595u
ROI
-23.2%
win rate
38%
bets
257
drawdown
61.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-126u
period 2top-up-246u
period 1top-up-224u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll25738%-548-23.3%56.2%Select
Flat (10 units)25738%-595-23.2%61.3%Selected
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll25738%-1007-23.4%103.1%Select
5% of bankroll25738%-1960-23.7%199.2%Select
10% of bankroll25738%-2671-24%263.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 257, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8910lost-10405
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4510lost-10415
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5210lost-10425
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8910won+9435
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4310lost-10426
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8910won+9436
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1310won+21427
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9010won+9405
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4310lost-10396
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9510lost-10406
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0310won+10416
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9510won+10406
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9510won+10397
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0210lost-10387
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9510lost-10397
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2110lost-10407
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1110lost-10417
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9610won+10427
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8910lost-10418
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5510won+16428
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0110lost-10412
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2210lost-10422
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1210lost-10432
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0110won+10442
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9510won+9432
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9510lost-10422
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9110won+9432
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9210lost-10423
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1410lost-10433
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3210lost-10443
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8910won+9453
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9110lost-10444
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9310lost-10454
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1310lost-10464
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8910lost-10474
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9210won+9484
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1910lost-10475
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2210won+12485
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1910lost-10473
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2010won+12483
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3610lost-10471
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0810lost-10481
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0310lost-10491
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8910lost-10501
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2310lost-10511
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1110lost-10521
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0510won+11531
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8910won+9520
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1910won+12512
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9210lost-10500
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0410won+10510
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9710lost-10499
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9010won+9509
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0310lost-10500
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0310won+10510
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9210won+9500
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0510lost-10491
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0610lost-10501
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0310lost-10511
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMBETBOOM TEAM2.3910lost-10521
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.