?

Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2013u
ROI
-23.9%
win rate
38%
bets
263
drawdown
201.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-563u
period 2top-up-762u
period 1top-up-688u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll26338%-567-23.6%56.7%Select
Flat (10 units)26338%-617-23.5%61.7%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll26338%-1040-23.7%104%Select
5% of bankroll26338%-2013-23.9%201.3%Selected
10% of bankroll26338%-2715-24.1%265.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 263, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Yellow Submarine – Power RangersPower Rangers2.0923lost-23-1013
14.10.26zxcursed Team – Nix Teamzxcursed Team1.9522won+21-990
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataCyberHero1.9423lost-23-1011
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.2824lost-24-988
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8926lost-26-964
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8925won+22-938
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4526lost-26-960
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.9427lost-27-934
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5229lost-29-907
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8927won+24-878
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4329lost-29-903
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1326won+56-874
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8925won+22-929
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4326lost-26-952
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9025won+23-925
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9526lost-26-948
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0325won+26-921
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9524won+23-947
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9523won+22-970
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0224lost-24-992
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9525lost-25-968
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2127lost-27-943
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1128lost-28-916
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9627won+26-888
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8928lost-28-913
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0130lost-30-885
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5528won+43-855
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2229lost-29-898
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1231lost-31-869
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0129won+30-839
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9528won+26-868
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9529lost-29-895
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9128won+25-865
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9229lost-29-891
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1431lost-31-861
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3233lost-33-830
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8931won+28-798
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9133lost-33-825
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9335lost-35-792
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1336lost-36-758
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8938lost-38-721
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9237won+34-683
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1939lost-39-717
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2236won+44-678
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1938lost-38-723
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2036won+43-684
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3638lost-38-728
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0840lost-40-690
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0342lost-42-650
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8944lost-44-607
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2347lost-47-563
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1149lost-49-516
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0547won+49-467
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8945won+40-516
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1942won+50-556
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9244lost-44-606
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0442won+44-562
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9744lost-44-606
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9043won+38-561
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0345lost-45-600
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.