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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-24430u
ROI
-51.2%
win rate
38%
bets
4992
drawdown
2443%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

5% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-966u
period 24top-up-970u
period 23top-up-994u
period 22top-up-999u
period 21top-up-995u
period 20top-up-995u
period 19top-up-999u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)23741%-1200-50.7%120%Select
Martingale5332%-1351-55.5%135.1%Select
1% of bankroll499238%-15804-52%1580.4%Select
2% of bankroll499238%-21220-51.6%2122%Select
5% of bankroll499238%-24430-51.2%2443%Selected
Quarter Kelly29923%-24846-94.4%2484.6%Select
10% of bankroll499238%-24875-51.3%2487.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4992, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.002lost-2-23430
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.002lost-2-23428
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.002lost-2-23426
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.002lost-2-23424
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.002lost-2-23422
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.002lost-2-23420
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.052won+0-23418
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.002lost-2-23418
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.172won+0-23416
15.08.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team1.922won+2-23416
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingTeam Liquid1.122won+0-23418
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.702lost-2-23418
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.012won+0-23416
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.003lost-3-23416
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.033won+0-23413
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.003lost-3-23413
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.003lost-3-23411
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.303lost-3-23408
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.003lost-3-23405
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.003lost-3-23402
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.003lost-3-23399
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.004lost-4-23395
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.004lost-4-23391
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.154won+1-23388
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.004lost-4-23388
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Spirit1.034won+0-23384
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.004lost-4-23384
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGTeam Resilience1.304won+1-23380
14.08.261w Team – Team Falcons1w Team1.104won+0-23381
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.004lost-4-23382
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.005lost-5-23377
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.225won+1-23373
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.205lost-5-23374
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.175won+1-23369
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.025won+0-23370
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.805lost-5-23370
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.805lost-5-23365
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.506lost-6-23360
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.406lost-6-23354
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.006lost-6-23348
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.006lost-6-23342
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.007lost-7-23336
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.007lost-7-23329
13.08.261w Team – Nigma Galaxy1w Team1.017won+0-23322
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGOG3.208lost-8-23322
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.508lost-8-23314
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.008lost-8-23307
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.228won+2-23298
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.018won+0-23300
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.018won+0-23300
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyLevel UP1.178won+1-23300
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.018won+0-23302
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkTeam Spirit Academy1.018won+0-23302
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.009lost-9-23302
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.009lost-9-23293
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.259won+2-23284
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPLevel UP1.019won+0-23286
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.009lost-9-23286
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.0010lost-10-23277
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZMOUZ1.0810won+1-23267
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.