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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2671u
ROI
-24%
win rate
38%
bets
257
drawdown
263.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-796u
period 2top-up-963u
period 1top-up-912u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll25738%-548-23.3%56.2%Select
Flat (10 units)25738%-595-23.2%61.3%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll25738%-1007-23.4%103.1%Select
5% of bankroll25738%-1960-23.7%199.2%Select
10% of bankroll25738%-2671-24%263.1%Selected
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 257, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8923lost-23-1671
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4525lost-25-1648
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5228lost-28-1623
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8926won+23-1595
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4329lost-29-1618
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8926won+23-1589
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1322won+46-1612
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9020won+18-1659
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4322lost-22-1676
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9525lost-25-1654
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0322won+23-1630
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9520won+19-1653
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9519won+18-1672
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0221lost-21-1690
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9523lost-23-1669
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2125lost-25-1646
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1128lost-28-1621
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9626won+25-1593
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8929lost-29-1617
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5525won+38-1589
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0128lost-28-1627
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2231lost-31-1600
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1234lost-34-1569
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0131won+31-1535
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9528won+27-1566
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9531lost-31-1593
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9129won+26-1562
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9232lost-32-1588
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1435lost-35-1556
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3239lost-39-1520
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8936won+32-1481
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9140lost-40-1513
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9345lost-45-1473
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1350lost-50-1428
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8955lost-55-1379
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9250won+46-1324
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1956lost-56-1370
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2250won+61-1314
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1956lost-56-1375
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2050won+59-1320
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3655lost-55-1379
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0861lost-61-1324
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0368lost-68-1263
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8976lost-76-1195
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2384lost-84-1119
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1193lost-93-1035
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0584won+89-942
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8978won+69-1030
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1969won+83-1099
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9277lost-77-1182
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0470won+72-1105
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9778lost-78-1177
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9071won+64-1100
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0379lost-79-1164
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0372won+74-1085
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9266won+60-1159
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0573lost-73-1219
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0681lost-81-1146
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0390lost-90-1065
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMBETBOOM TEAM2.39100lost-100-975
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.