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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-24875u
ROI
-51.3%
win rate
38%
bets
4993
drawdown
2487.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-999u
period 24top-up-999u
period 23top-up-1000u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-1000u
period 20top-up-1000u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)23741%-1200-50.7%120%Select
Martingale6933%-1384-40.5%138.4%Select
1% of bankroll499338%-15800-52%1580.4%Select
2% of bankroll499338%-21215-51.6%2122%Select
5% of bankroll499338%-24429-51.2%2443%Select
Quarter Kelly29923%-24846-94.4%2484.6%Select
10% of bankroll499338%-24875-51.3%2487.5%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4993, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Team FalconsNigma Galaxy1.900won+0-23875
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.000lost-0-23875
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23875
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.000lost-0-23875
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.000lost-0-23875
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.000lost-0-23875
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.000lost-0-23874
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.050won+0-23874
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23874
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.170won+0-23874
15.08.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team1.920won+0-23874
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingTeam Liquid1.120won+0-23874
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.700lost-0-23874
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.010won+0-23874
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.000lost-0-23874
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.030won+0-23874
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.000lost-0-23874
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23874
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.300lost-0-23873
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.000lost-0-23873
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.000lost-0-23873
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.000lost-0-23872
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.000lost-0-23872
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.001lost-1-23872
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.150won+0-23871
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.001lost-1-23871
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Spirit1.031won+0-23871
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.001lost-1-23871
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGTeam Resilience1.301won+0-23870
14.08.261w Team – Team Falcons1w Team1.101won+0-23870
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.001lost-1-23870
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.001lost-1-23870
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.221won+0-23869
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.201lost-1-23869
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.021won+0-23868
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.171won+0-23868
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.801lost-1-23868
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.801lost-1-23867
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.501lost-1-23866
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.401lost-1-23865
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.001lost-1-23864
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.001lost-1-23863
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.002lost-2-23861
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.002lost-2-23860
13.08.261w Team – Nigma Galaxy1w Team1.012won+0-23858
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGOG3.202lost-2-23858
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.502lost-2-23856
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.002lost-2-23854
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.222won+1-23851
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.012won+0-23852
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.012won+0-23852
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyLevel UP1.172won+0-23852
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.012won+0-23852
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkTeam Spirit Academy1.012won+0-23852
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.003lost-3-23852
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.003lost-3-23850
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.253won+1-23847
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPLevel UP1.013won+0-23848
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.003lost-3-23848
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.004lost-4-23844
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.