Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-36.3%
win rate
22%
bets
32
drawdown
100%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 265 | 38% | -568 | -23.4% | 57.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 265 | 38% | -618 | -23.3% | 62.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 32 | 22% | -1000 | -36.3% | 100% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 265 | 38% | -1042 | -23.5% | 105.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 265 | 38% | -2017 | -23.8% | 203.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 265 | 38% | -2718 | -24.1% | 267.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 32, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.08.26 | DYNASTY – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.47 | 141 | lost | -141 | 0 |
| 29.08.26 | Team Resilience – Animals Incoming | Animals Incoming | 1.89 | 320 | lost | -320 | 141 |
| 29.08.26 | Ice Cream Men – Team Kinetix | Team Kinetix | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 461 |
| 29.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – the goal of all life is death | the goal of all life is death | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 621 |
| 29.08.26 | Natus Vincere – summer bear | summer bear | 1.96 | 40 | lost | -40 | 701 |
| 29.08.26 | Cloud Rising – Novus Gaming | Novus Gaming | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 741 |
| 28.08.26 | FTS – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 761 |
| 28.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Rune Eaters Arise | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 771 |
| 28.08.26 | DYNASTY – PuckChamp | PuckChamp | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 753 |
| 28.08.26 | DYNASTY – Inner Circle | DYNASTY | 2.02 | 80 | won | +82 | 763 |
| 28.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – summer bear | summer bear | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 681 |
| 28.08.26 | PuckChamp – Inner Circle | PuckChamp | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 721 |
| 27.08.26 | Nemiga Gaming – summer bear | Nemiga Gaming | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 741 |
| 27.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Level UP | Level UP | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 751 |
| 25.08.26 | summer bear – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 741 |
| 25.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – Team Spirit Academy | Rune Eaters Arise | 1.96 | 320 | won | +306 | 732 |
| 25.08.26 | Inner Circle – FTS | FTS | 2.10 | 160 | lost | -160 | 425 |
| 25.08.26 | FTS – PuckChamp | FTS | 2.02 | 80 | lost | -80 | 585 |
| 25.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – summer bear | summer bear | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 665 |
| 25.08.26 | PuckChamp – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 705 |
| 24.08.26 | DYNASTY – FTS | FTS | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 725 |
| 24.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.95 | 376 | won | +359 | 735 |
| 24.08.26 | summer bear – Ducksquad | Ducksquad | 1.89 | 320 | lost | -320 | 376 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 696 |
| 24.08.26 | Inner Circle – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 856 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 2.02 | 40 | lost | -40 | 936 |
| 23.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Spirit | Team Yandex | 2.03 | 20 | lost | -20 | 976 |
| 22.08.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – Team Spirit | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 996 |
| 22.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 1.95 | 80 | won | +76 | 1006 |
| 22.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TEAM | Nigma Galaxy | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 930 |
| 22.08.26 | Team Spirit – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 970 |
| 21.08.26 | Team Yandex – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.