Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1351u
ROI
-55.5%
win rate
32%
bets
53
drawdown
135.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 237 | 41% | -1200 | -50.7% | 120% | Select |
| Martingale | 53 | 32% | -1351 | -55.5% | 135.1% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -15804 | -52% | 1580.4% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -21220 | -51.6% | 2122% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -24430 | -51.2% | 2443% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2992 | 3% | -24846 | -94.4% | 2484.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 4992 | 38% | -24875 | -51.3% | 2487.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 53, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.09.24 | Team Liquid – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 6.00 | 335 | lost | -335 | -351 |
| 06.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Talon Esports | Talon Esports | 15.00 | 320 | lost | -320 | -16 |
| 05.09.24 | G2 Invictus Gaming – Tundra Esports | G2 Invictus Gaming | 15.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | 304 |
| 05.09.24 | Team Falcons – Team Zero | Team Zero | 15.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 464 |
| 05.09.24 | Team Liquid – Team Spirit | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 544 |
| 05.09.24 | Talon Esports – Cloud9 | Talon Esports | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 584 |
| 05.09.24 | BETBOOM Team – Team Falcons | BETBOOM Team | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 604 |
| 05.09.24 | beastcoast – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.22 | 40 | won | +9 | 614 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Liquid – beastcoast | beastcoast | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 605 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 625 |
| 04.09.24 | BETBOOM Team – Team Zero | Team Zero | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | 635 |
| 04.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Gaimin Gladiators | Gaimin Gladiators | 8.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 635 |
| 04.09.24 | G2 Invictus Gaming – Talon Esports | G2 Invictus Gaming | 2.40 | 160 | won | +224 | 645 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Liquid – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 15.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 421 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Spirit – beastcoast | beastcoast | 15.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 501 |
| 04.09.24 | BETBOOM Team – nouns | nouns | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 541 |
| 04.09.24 | G2 Invictus Gaming – Cloud9 | G2 Invictus Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 561 |
| 04.09.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – 1w Team | Gaimin Gladiators | 1.01 | 160 | won | +2 | 571 |
| 04.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Heroic | Heroic | 6.30 | 80 | lost | -80 | 569 |
| 30.08.24 | 1w Team – AVULUS | 1w Team | 6.60 | 40 | lost | -40 | 649 |
| 29.08.24 | AVULUS – MOUZ | MOUZ | 8.50 | 20 | lost | -20 | 689 |
| 29.08.24 | MOUZ – DMS | DMS | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 709 |
| 28.08.24 | 1w Team – AVULUS | 1w Team | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 719 |
| 28.08.24 | DMS – Natus Vincere Junior | DMS | 1.10 | 80 | won | +8 | 719 |
| 28.08.24 | MOUZ – Passion UA | Passion UA | 12.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 711 |
| 27.08.24 | 1w Team – DMS | DMS | 11.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 751 |
| 27.08.24 | MOUZ – AVULUS | MOUZ | 4.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 771 |
| 27.08.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – Night Pulse | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.01 | 80 | won | +1 | 781 |
| 27.08.24 | Passion UA – Hydra | Hydra | 6.60 | 40 | lost | -40 | 780 |
| 26.08.24 | DMS – Hydra | Hydra | 12.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 820 |
| 26.08.24 | 1w Team – Passion UA | Passion UA | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 840 |
| 26.08.24 | MOUZ – Natus Vincere Junior | MOUZ | 1.10 | 20 | won | +2 | 850 |
| 26.08.24 | Night Pulse – AVULUS | Night Pulse | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 848 |
| 25.08.24 | Team Spirit – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 1.15 | 10 | won | +1 | 858 |
| 25.08.24 | Team Falcons – Tundra Esports | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 857 |
| 24.08.24 | Team Falcons – Team Spirit | Team Falcons | 11.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 856 |
| 24.08.24 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 876 |
| 24.08.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – Vrooomy.io | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.32 | 20 | won | +6 | 886 |
| 24.08.24 | Team Spirit – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 6.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 880 |
| 24.08.24 | Tundra Esports – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 1.05 | 40 | won | +2 | 890 |
| 24.08.24 | AVULUS – Dragon Esports | Dragon Esports | 10.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 888 |
| 24.08.24 | BETBOOM Team – nouns | nouns | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 908 |
| 24.08.24 | Cloud9 – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 918 |
| 23.08.24 | Night Pulse – V1dar Gaming | V1dar Gaming | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 918 |
| 23.08.24 | AVULUS – Natus Vincere Junior | Natus Vincere Junior | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 938 |
| 22.08.24 | nouns – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | 948 |
| 22.08.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 947 |
| 22.08.24 | Team Spirit – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 947 |
| 22.08.24 | Cloud9 – G2 Invictus Gaming | G2 Invictus Gaming | 5.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 967 |
| 21.08.24 | BETBOOM Team – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 1.10 | 10 | won | +1 | 977 |
| 21.08.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – nouns | nouns | 1.15 | 40 | won | +6 | 976 |
| 21.08.24 | Team Falcons – G2 Invictus Gaming | G2 Invictus Gaming | 1.60 | 20 | lost | -20 | 970 |
| 21.08.24 | Team Spirit – Cloud9 | Cloud9 | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.