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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-566u
ROI
-23.7%
win rate
38%
bets
261
drawdown
56.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-140u
period 2top-up-224u
period 1top-up-202u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll26138%-566-23.7%56.6%Selected
Flat (10 units)26138%-617-23.6%61.7%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll26138%-1039-23.8%103.9%Select
5% of bankroll26138%-2011-24%201.1%Select
10% of bankroll26138%-2713-24.2%265.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 261, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataCyberHero1.949lost-9434
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.289lost-9443
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team1.899won+8451
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.899lost-9444
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.459lost-9452
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.949lost-9461
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.529lost-9470
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.899won+8479
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.439lost-9471
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.139won+19480
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.899won+8462
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.909won+8454
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.959lost-9446
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.439lost-9455
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.039won+9464
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.959won+8455
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.959won+8446
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.029lost-9438
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.959lost-9447
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.219lost-9455
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.119lost-9464
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.969won+9473
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.899lost-9465
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.019lost-9474
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.559won+14483
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.229lost-9469
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.129lost-9478
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.019won+9487
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.959won+9478
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.959lost-9470
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.919won+8479
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.929lost-9470
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.149lost-9480
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.329lost-9489
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.899won+8498
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.919lost-9490
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.939lost-9499
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.139lost-9508
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8910lost-10518
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.929won+9527
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1910lost-10519
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.229won+12528
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1910lost-10517
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.209won+11526
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3610lost-10515
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0810lost-10524
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0310lost-10534
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8910lost-10544
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2310lost-10553
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1110lost-10563
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0510won+10573
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8910won+9563
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1910won+12554
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9210lost-10543
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0410won+10553
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9710lost-10542
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9010won+9552
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0310lost-10544
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0310won+10553
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9210won+9543
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.