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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1007u
ROI
-23.4%
win rate
38%
bets
257
drawdown
103.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-233u
period 2top-up-408u
period 1top-up-365u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll25738%-548-23.3%56.2%Select
Flat (10 units)25738%-595-23.2%61.3%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll25738%-1007-23.4%103.1%Selected
5% of bankroll25738%-1960-23.7%199.2%Select
10% of bankroll25738%-2671-24%263.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 257, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8916lost-16-7
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4516lost-169
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5216lost-1625
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8916won+1441
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4316lost-1627
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8916won+1443
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1315won+3329
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9015won+14-4
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4315lost-15-17
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9516lost-16-2
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0315won+1614
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9515won+14-2
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9515won+14-16
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0215lost-15-31
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9515lost-15-15
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2116lost-160
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1116lost-1616
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9616won+1532
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8916lost-1617
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5516won+2433
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0116lost-169
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2216lost-1625
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1217lost-1741
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0116won+1757
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9516won+1541
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9516lost-1626
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9116won+1542
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9216lost-1628
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1417lost-1744
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3217lost-1761
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8917won+1578
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9117lost-1763
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9317lost-1780
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1318lost-1897
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8918lost-18115
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9218won+16133
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1918lost-18117
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2218won+22135
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1918lost-18113
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2018won+21131
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3618lost-18110
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0818lost-18128
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0319lost-19147
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8919lost-19165
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2320lost-20185
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1120lost-20204
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0520won+21224
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8919won+17204
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1919won+22186
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9219lost-19164
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0419won+19183
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9719lost-19164
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9019won+17183
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0319lost-19166
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0319won+19185
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9218won+17166
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0519lost-19149
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0619lost-19168
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0320lost-20187
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMBETBOOM TEAM2.3920lost-20206
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.