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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-585u
ROI
-22.9%
win rate
38%
bets
256
drawdown
61.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-116u
period 2top-up-246u
period 1top-up-224u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll25638%-539-23%56.2%Select
Flat (10 units)25638%-585-22.9%61.3%Select
2% of bankroll25638%-991-23.1%103.1%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
5% of bankroll25638%-1934-23.4%199.2%Select
10% of bankroll25638%-2648-23.8%263.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 256, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8910lost-10415
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5210lost-10425
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8910won+9435
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4310lost-10426
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8910won+9436
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1310won+21427
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9010won+9405
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9510lost-10396
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4310lost-10406
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0310won+10416
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9510won+10406
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9510won+10397
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0210lost-10387
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9510lost-10397
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2110lost-10407
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1110lost-10417
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9610won+10427
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8910lost-10418
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0110lost-10428
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5510won+16438
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2210lost-10422
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1210lost-10432
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0110won+10442
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9510won+9432
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9510lost-10422
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9110won+9432
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9210lost-10423
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1410lost-10433
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3210lost-10443
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8910won+9453
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9110lost-10444
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9310lost-10454
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1310lost-10464
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8910lost-10474
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9210won+9484
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1910lost-10475
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2210won+12485
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1910lost-10473
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2010won+12483
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3610lost-10471
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0810lost-10481
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0310lost-10491
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8910lost-10501
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2310lost-10511
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1110lost-10521
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0510won+11531
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8910won+9520
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1910won+12512
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9210lost-10500
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0410won+10510
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9710lost-10499
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9010won+9509
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0310lost-10500
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9210won+9510
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0310won+10501
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0510lost-10491
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0610lost-10501
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMBETBOOM TEAM2.3910lost-10511
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0310lost-10521
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0710won+11531
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.