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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2675u
ROI
-23.9%
win rate
38%
bets
259
drawdown
263.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-800u
period 2top-up-963u
period 1top-up-912u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll25938%-549-23.1%56.2%Select
Flat (10 units)25938%-597-23%61.3%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll25938%-1009-23.3%103.1%Select
5% of bankroll25938%-1964-23.6%199.2%Select
10% of bankroll25938%-2675-23.9%263.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8918won+16-1675
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8920lost-20-1691
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4523lost-23-1671
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.9425lost-25-1648
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5228lost-28-1623
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8926won+23-1595
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4329lost-29-1618
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1324won+50-1589
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8922won+19-1639
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9020won+18-1659
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4322lost-22-1676
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9525lost-25-1654
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0322won+23-1630
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9520won+19-1653
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9519won+18-1672
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0221lost-21-1690
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9523lost-23-1669
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2125lost-25-1646
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1128lost-28-1621
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9626won+25-1593
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8929lost-29-1617
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0132lost-32-1589
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5528won+43-1557
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2231lost-31-1600
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1234lost-34-1569
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0131won+31-1535
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9528won+27-1566
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9531lost-31-1593
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9129won+26-1562
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9232lost-32-1588
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1435lost-35-1556
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3239lost-39-1520
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8936won+32-1481
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9140lost-40-1513
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9345lost-45-1473
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1350lost-50-1428
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8955lost-55-1379
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9250won+46-1324
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1956lost-56-1370
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2250won+61-1314
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1956lost-56-1375
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2050won+59-1320
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3655lost-55-1379
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0861lost-61-1324
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0368lost-68-1263
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8976lost-76-1195
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2384lost-84-1119
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1193lost-93-1035
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0584won+89-942
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8978won+69-1030
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1969won+83-1099
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9277lost-77-1182
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0470won+72-1105
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9778lost-78-1177
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9071won+64-1100
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0379lost-79-1164
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0372won+74-1085
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9266won+60-1159
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0573lost-73-1219
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0681lost-81-1146
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.