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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-548u
ROI
-23.3%
win rate
38%
bets
257
drawdown
56.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-121u
period 2top-up-224u
period 1top-up-202u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll25738%-548-23.3%56.2%Select
Flat (10 units)25738%-595-23.2%61.3%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll25738%-1007-23.4%103.1%Select
5% of bankroll25738%-1960-23.7%199.2%Select
10% of bankroll25738%-2671-24%263.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 257, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.899lost-9452
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.459lost-9461
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.529lost-9470
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.899won+8479
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.439lost-9471
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.899won+8480
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.139won+19472
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.909won+8454
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.439lost-9446
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.959lost-9455
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.039won+9464
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.959won+8455
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.959won+8446
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.029lost-9438
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.959lost-9447
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.219lost-9455
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.119lost-9464
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.969won+9473
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.899lost-9465
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.559won+14474
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.019lost-9460
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.229lost-9469
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.129lost-9478
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.019won+9487
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.959won+9478
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.959lost-9470
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.919won+8479
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.929lost-9470
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.149lost-9480
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.329lost-9489
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.899won+8498
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.919lost-9490
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.939lost-9499
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.139lost-9508
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8910lost-10518
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.929won+9527
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1910lost-10519
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.229won+12528
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1910lost-10517
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.209won+11526
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3610lost-10515
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0810lost-10524
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0310lost-10534
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8910lost-10544
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2310lost-10553
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1110lost-10563
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0510won+10573
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8910won+9563
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1910won+12554
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9210lost-10543
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0410won+10553
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9710lost-10542
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9010won+9552
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0310lost-10544
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0310won+10553
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9210won+9543
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0510lost-10535
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0610lost-10544
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0310lost-10554
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMBETBOOM TEAM2.3910lost-10564
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.