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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-15800u
ROI
-52%
win rate
38%
bets
4993
drawdown
1580.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-478u
period 24top-up-495u
period 23top-up-625u
period 22top-up-749u
period 21top-up-645u
period 20top-up-635u
period 19top-up-721u
period 18top-up-788u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)23741%-1200-50.7%120%Select
Martingale6933%-1384-40.5%138.4%Select
1% of bankroll499338%-15800-52%1580.4%Select
2% of bankroll499338%-21215-51.6%2122%Select
5% of bankroll499338%-24429-51.2%2443%Select
Quarter Kelly29923%-24846-94.4%2484.6%Select
10% of bankroll499338%-24875-51.3%2487.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4993, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Team FalconsNigma Galaxy1.905won+5-14800
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.005lost-5-14804
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.005lost-5-14799
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.005lost-5-14794
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.005lost-5-14789
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.005lost-5-14783
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.005lost-5-14778
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.055won+0-14772
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.006lost-6-14773
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.176won+1-14767
15.08.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team1.925won+5-14768
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingTeam Liquid1.125won+1-14773
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.706lost-6-14774
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.016won+0-14768
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.006lost-6-14768
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.036won+0-14763
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.006lost-6-14763
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.006lost-6-14757
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.306lost-6-14751
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.006lost-6-14746
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.006lost-6-14740
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.006lost-6-14734
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.006lost-6-14728
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.006lost-6-14722
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.156won+1-14716
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.006lost-6-14717
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Spirit1.036won+0-14711
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.006lost-6-14711
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGTeam Resilience1.306won+2-14705
14.08.261w Team – Team Falcons1w Team1.106won+1-14707
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.006lost-6-14707
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.006lost-6-14701
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.226won+1-14695
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.206lost-6-14696
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.026won+0-14690
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.176won+1-14690
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.806lost-6-14691
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.806lost-6-14685
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.507lost-7-14678
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.407lost-7-14672
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.007lost-7-14665
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.007lost-7-14659
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.007lost-7-14652
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.007lost-7-14645
13.08.261w Team – Nigma Galaxy1w Team1.017won+0-14638
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGOG3.207lost-7-14638
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.507lost-7-14631
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.007lost-7-14624
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.227won+2-14617
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.017won+0-14619
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.017won+0-14619
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyLevel UP1.177won+1-14619
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.017won+0-14620
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkTeam Spirit Academy1.017won+0-14620
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.007lost-7-14620
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.007lost-7-14613
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.257won+2-14606
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPLevel UP1.017won+0-14608
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.007lost-7-14608
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.007lost-7-14601
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.