Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit

+1407u

ROI

+10.8%

win rate

62%

bets

257

drawdown

20.7%

payouts

Balance by period

Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.

working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up

Strategy rules

gps_fixed

What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments

Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt

Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights

Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups

period 3profit withdrawn+122u

period 2profit withdrawn+20u

period 1profit withdrawn+1265u

Stake sizes

Stake	Bets	Hit	Profit	ROI	Drawdown	Pick
10% of bankroll	257	62%	+3674	+14%	27.1%	Select
5% of bankroll	257	62%	+1407	+10.8%	20.7%	Select
2% of bankroll	257	62%	+505	+9.7%	13.2%	Select
1% of bankroll	257	62%	+245	+9.5%	7.9%	Select
Flat (10 units)	257	62%	+238	+9.3%	8.1%	Select
Martingale	53	66%	-777	-46.2%	82.2%	Selected
Quarter Kelly	0	0%	+0	+0%	0%	Select

Bet-by-bet match log

Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 257, showing the last 60.

All Random 50%Random 25%Random 10%

Date	Match	Bet on	Odds	Stake	Result	±Bank	Bank
14.10.26	Team Lynx – PuckChamp	Team Lynx	1.40	55	won	+22	2407
14.10.26	Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata	Kalmychata	1.53	54	won	+29	2385
14.10.26	Inner Circle – Team Lynx	Team Lynx	1.51	52	won	+26	2356
13.10.26	By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog Team	Stariy_bog Team	1.88	55	lost	-55	2330
13.10.26	HULIGANI – Yellow Submarine	Yellow Submarine	1.54	54	won	+29	2385
13.10.26	Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team	Stariy_bog Team	1.88	56	lost	-56	2356
13.10.26	Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls	Dawn Bulls	1.35	59	lost	-59	2412
13.10.26	CyberHero – Shadow Dance	Shadow Dance	1.88	62	lost	-62	2471
13.10.26	Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy	Dawn Bulls	1.54	61	won	+33	2534
13.10.26	Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ	Power Rangers	1.82	58	won	+48	2501
13.10.26	Gorgc Team – Nix Team	Nix Team	1.76	61	lost	-61	2453
13.10.26	Team Resilience – Cloud Rising	Cloud Rising	1.83	65	lost	-65	2514
13.10.26	ALOHADANCE Team – Nix Team	ALOHADANCE Team	1.82	68	lost	-68	2579
13.10.26	HULIGANI – Nemiga Gaming	HULIGANI	1.77	66	won	+50	2647
13.10.26	Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning	Cloud Rising	1.82	63	won	+52	2597
13.10.26	Team Lynx – Zero Tenacity	Team Lynx	1.65	61	won	+39	2545
12.10.26	The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls	Dawn Bulls	1.70	59	won	+42	2506
12.10.26	By_Owl Team – Stray Team	By_Owl Team	1.82	62	lost	-62	2464
12.10.26	ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc Team	ALOHADANCE Team	1.89	59	won	+53	2526
12.10.26	Nemiga Gaming – 111	111	1.50	63	lost	-63	2473
12.10.26	CyberHero – Team Lynx	Team Lynx	1.78	60	won	+47	2536
12.10.26	CyberHero – PuckChamp	CyberHero	1.64	58	won	+37	2489
11.10.26	Team Spirit – PARIVISION	Team Spirit	1.70	56	won	+40	2452
11.10.26	Hokori – New Growth	New Growth	1.77	59	lost	-59	2412
10.10.26	PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming	Aurora Gaming	1.83	62	lost	-62	2472
10.10.26	Team Yandex – Team Spirit	Team Yandex	1.83	60	won	+50	2534
09.10.26	Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming	LGD Gaming	1.87	63	lost	-63	2485
09.10.26	PARIVISION – 1w Team	PARIVISION	1.85	61	won	+52	2548
09.10.26	Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming	Team Spirit	1.68	59	won	+40	2496
08.10.26	PARIVISION – Team Yandex	Team Yandex	1.59	57	won	+33	2456
08.10.26	LEGION – BlasterbI	BlasterbI	1.88	60	lost	-60	2423
08.10.26	Aurora Gaming – 1w Team	Aurora Gaming	1.86	57	won	+50	2483
08.10.26	Team Synapse – BlasterbI	BlasterbI	1.85	55	won	+47	2433
08.10.26	Team Yandex – LGD Gaming	Team Yandex	1.69	53	won	+37	2386
07.10.26	CyberHero – BlasterbI	BlasterbI	1.89	51	won	+45	2349
07.10.26	Team Synapse – LEGION	Team Synapse	1.85	54	lost	-54	2304
07.10.26	MOUZ – CyberHero	CyberHero	1.66	52	won	+34	2358
07.10.26	Yellow Submarine – BlasterbI	Yellow Submarine	1.64	55	lost	-55	2324
06.10.26	LEGION – MOUZ	LEGION	1.66	53	won	+35	2378
06.10.26	Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine	Yellow Submarine	1.65	56	lost	-56	2344
06.10.26	BlasterbI – Nemiga Gaming	BlasterbI	1.57	54	won	+31	2399
06.10.26	HULIGANI – CyberHero	CyberHero	1.72	52	won	+38	2368
05.10.26	MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming	MOUZ	1.77	50	won	+39	2331
05.10.26	LEGION – BlasterbI	LEGION	1.89	48	won	+43	2292
05.10.26	Yellow Submarine – CyberHero	Yellow Submarine	1.63	47	won	+30	2249
05.10.26	Team Synapse – HULIGANI	Team Synapse	1.71	45	won	+32	2220
03.10.26	Team Spirit – Team Yandex	Team Yandex	1.75	48	lost	-48	2188
03.10.26	1w Team – OG	OG	1.88	50	lost	-50	2235
03.10.26	Daxak Team – Cake Team	Daxak Team	1.66	53	lost	-53	2285
03.10.26	LGD Gaming – GamerLegion	LGD Gaming	1.86	50	won	+43	2338
03.10.26	PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming	Aurora Gaming	1.76	53	lost	-53	2295
03.10.26	Rostik Team – Cake Team	Cake Team	1.81	51	won	+41	2348
02.10.26	BETBOOM TEAM – OG	BETBOOM TEAM	1.87	54	lost	-54	2306
02.10.26	GamerLegion – Team Liquid	GamerLegion	1.76	52	won	+39	2360
02.10.26	1w Team – Team Nemesis	Team Nemesis	1.76	55	lost	-55	2321
02.10.26	LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming	Xtreme Gaming	1.85	57	lost	-57	2375
01.10.26	GamerLegion – Yakult Brothers	GamerLegion	1.75	55	won	+41	2433
01.10.26	Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid	Aurora Gaming	1.74	53	won	+40	2391
01.10.26	MOUZ – OG	OG	1.76	51	won	+39	2352
01.10.26	Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAM	Team Yandex	1.56	50	won	+28	2313

Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.

This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy