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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-24556u
ROI
-29.5%
win rate
62%
bets
4992
drawdown
2191.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-985u
period 24top-up-960u
period 23top-up-996u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-999u
period 20top-up-995u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale26758%-1655-29.1%164.7%Select
1% of bankroll499262%-10726-29.2%1060.5%Select
Flat (10 units)499262%-14348-28.7%1418.2%Select
2% of bankroll499262%-16606-29.5%1622.3%Select
5% of bankroll499262%-22896-29.9%2159.9%Select
10% of bankroll499262%-24556-29.5%2191.8%Selected
Quarter Kelly19358%-24607-81.8%2389.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4992, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.022won+0-23556
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.012won+0-23556
20.08.261w Team – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.012won+0-23556
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.012won+0-23556
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.012won+0-23556
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Spirit1.012won+0-23556
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.002lost-2-23556
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.012won+0-23555
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.802lost-2-23555
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.852lost-2-23553
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.002lost-2-23551
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.452won+1-23548
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.002lost-2-23549
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingLGD Gaming1.012won+0-23547
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.003lost-3-23547
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.013won+0-23544
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.013won+0-23544
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.153won+0-23544
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.013won+0-23545
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.023won+0-23545
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.013won+0-23545
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamOG1.013won+0-23545
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.013won+0-23545
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.303lost-3-23545
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamXtreme Gaming1.013won+0-23542
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.003lost-3-23542
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.043won+0-23538
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.404lost-4-23539
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.604lost-4-23535
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.054won+0-23531
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.014won+0-23531
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.205lost-5-23531
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.224won+1-23526
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.805lost-5-23527
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.005lost-5-23523
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.985won+5-23517
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.125won+1-23522
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.065won+0-23523
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w TeamBETBOOM Team1.205won+1-23523
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamTeam Yandex1.015won+0-23524
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingTeam Spirit1.015won+0-23524
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.025won+0-23524
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.015won+0-23524
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.005lost-5-23524
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.355won+2-23519
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.205won+1-23521
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.065won+0-23522
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.006lost-6-23522
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.006lost-6-23516
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.007lost-7-23510
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.308lost-8-23503
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.008lost-8-23496
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.009lost-9-23487
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.039won+0-23478
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.019won+0-23478
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0010lost-10-23478
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.0012lost-12-23468
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseRune Eaters Arise1.0112won+0-23456
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0112won+0-23456
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.0013lost-13-23456
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.