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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+3702u
ROI
+13.6%
win rate
62%
bets
265
drawdown
27.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+158u
period 2top-up-234u
period 1profit withdrawn+3778u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll26562%+3702+13.6%27.1%Selected
5% of bankroll26562%+1429+10.6%20.7%Select
2% of bankroll26562%+515+9.6%13.2%Select
1% of bankroll26562%+250+9.4%7.9%Select
Flat (10 units)26562%+244+9.2%8.1%Select
Martingale5366%-777-46.2%82.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 265, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26By_Owl Team – Korb3n TeamKorb3n Team1.88129lost-1294702
14.10.26Yellow Submarine – Power RangersYellow Submarine1.72120won+874831
14.10.26Kalmychata – HULIGANIKalmychata1.53114won+604744
14.10.26zxcursed Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.83127lost-1274684
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataKalmychata1.84117won+984810
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.61110won+674712
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.88122lost-1224645
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx1.40118won+474768
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.83109won+904720
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.53103won+554630
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.5198won+504575
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88109lost-1094525
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54103won+564634
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.35115lost-1154578
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.88128lost-1284693
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.82118won+974821
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.88131lost-1314724
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54124won+674855
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.76138lost-1384788
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingCloud Rising1.83154lost-1544926
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamALOHADANCE Team1.82171lost-1715079
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingHULIGANI1.77158won+1225250
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.82146won+1215128
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityTeam Lynx1.65137won+895008
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.70128won+904919
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamBy_Owl Team1.82143lost-1434829
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamALOHADANCE Team1.89131won+1164971
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.78122won+944855
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 1111111.50135lost-1354761
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampCyberHero1.64127won+814896
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.70119won+834815
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthNew Growth1.77132lost-1324731
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.83147lost-1474863
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Yandex1.83135won+1125010
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.87150lost-1504898
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w TeamPARIVISION1.85139won+1185049
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.68130won+894930
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.59123won+724842
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.88136lost-1364770
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.86125won+1084906
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.85116won+984797
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.69108won+754699
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8999won+884625
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.85110lost-1104537
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.66103won+684647
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIYellow Submarine1.64115lost-1154579
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZLEGION1.66108won+714694
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.65120lost-1204623
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingBlasterbI1.57113won+654743
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.72106won+774678
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7798won+754602
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8990won+804526
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6385won+544446
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANITeam Synapse1.7179won+564392
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7588lost-884336
03.10.261w Team – OGOG1.8898lost-984424
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.66109lost-1094522
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.86100won+864631
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.76111lost-1114545
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.81103won+834656
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.