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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-14348u
ROI
-28.7%
win rate
62%
bets
4992
drawdown
1418.2%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-378u
period 24top-up-278u
period 23top-up-508u
period 22top-up-778u
period 21top-up-693u
period 20top-up-487u
period 19top-up-710u
period 18top-up-710u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale26758%-1655-29.1%164.7%Select
1% of bankroll499262%-10726-29.2%1060.5%Select
Flat (10 units)499262%-14348-28.7%1418.2%Selected
2% of bankroll499262%-16606-29.5%1622.3%Select
5% of bankroll499262%-22896-29.9%2159.9%Select
10% of bankroll499262%-24556-29.5%2191.8%Select
Quarter Kelly19358%-24607-81.8%2389.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4992, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0210won+0-13348
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0110won+0-13348
20.08.261w Team – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-13348
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-13348
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.0110won+0-13348
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-13348
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.0010lost-10-13348
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-13338
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.8010lost-10-13338
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.8510lost-10-13328
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.0010lost-10-13318
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.4510won+4-13308
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.0010lost-10-13313
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingLGD Gaming1.0110won+0-13303
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0010lost-10-13303
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0110won+0-13293
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-13293
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1510won+1-13293
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-13295
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.0210won+0-13295
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-13295
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamOG1.0110won+0-13295
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-13295
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.3010lost-10-13295
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamXtreme Gaming1.0110won+0-13285
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.0010lost-10-13285
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0410won+0-13275
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.4010lost-10-13276
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.6010lost-10-13266
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0510won+1-13256
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-13256
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.2010lost-10-13256
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.2210won+2-13246
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.8010lost-10-13249
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-13239
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9810won+10-13229
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1210won+1-13238
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.0610won+1-13240
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w TeamBETBOOM Team1.2010won+2-13240
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-13242
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-13242
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0210won+0-13242
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0110won+0-13243
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.0010lost-10-13243
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.3510won+4-13233
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.2010won+2-13236
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0610won+1-13238
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0010lost-10-13239
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0010lost-10-13229
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0010lost-10-13219
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.3010lost-10-13209
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0010lost-10-13199
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0010lost-10-13189
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0310won+0-13179
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0110won+0-13179
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0010lost-10-13179
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.0010lost-10-13169
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseRune Eaters Arise1.0110won+0-13159
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-13159
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.0010lost-10-13159
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.