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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+241u
ROI
+9.2%
win rate
62%
bets
262
drawdown
8.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+37u
period 2profit withdrawn+34u
period 1profit withdrawn+171u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll26262%+3684+13.7%27.1%Select
5% of bankroll26262%+1417+10.6%21.5%Select
2% of bankroll26262%+510+9.6%13.7%Select
1% of bankroll26262%+248+9.4%8.4%Select
Flat (10 units)26262%+241+9.2%8.6%Selected
Martingale5366%-777-46.2%82.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 262, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26zxcursed Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.8310lost-101241
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataKalmychata1.8410won+81251
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.6110won+61243
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx1.4010won+41237
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.8810lost-101233
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.5310won+51243
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8310won+81237
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.5110won+51229
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8810lost-101224
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5410won+51234
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8810lost-101229
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.3510lost-101239
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.5410won+51249
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8810lost-101243
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.8210won+81253
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.7610lost-101245
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingCloud Rising1.8310lost-101255
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8210lost-101265
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingHULIGANI1.7710won+81275
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8210won+81267
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityTeam Lynx1.6510won+61259
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7010won+71253
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamBy_Owl Team1.8210lost-101246
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8910won+91256
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 1111111.5010lost-101247
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7810won+81257
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampCyberHero1.6410won+61249
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7010won+71242
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthNew Growth1.7710lost-101235
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8310lost-101245
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Yandex1.8310won+81255
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8710lost-101247
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w TeamPARIVISION1.8510won+91257
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6810won+71249
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.5910won+61242
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8810lost-101236
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8610won+91246
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8510won+81237
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6910won+71229
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8910won+91222
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8510lost-101213
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6610won+71223
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIYellow Submarine1.6410lost-101216
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZLEGION1.6610won+71226
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6510lost-101220
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingBlasterbI1.5710won+61230
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7210won+71224
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7710won+81217
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8910won+91209
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6310won+61200
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANITeam Synapse1.7110won+71194
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7510lost-101187
03.10.261w Team – OGOG1.8810lost-101197
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6610lost-101207
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.7610lost-101217
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8610won+91227
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8110won+81218
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8710lost-101210
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidGamerLegion1.7610won+81220
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8510lost-101213
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.