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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-22903u
ROI
-29.9%
win rate
62%
bets
4993
drawdown
2160.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

5% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-870u
period 24top-up-778u
period 23top-up-930u
period 22top-up-983u
period 21top-up-972u
period 20top-up-920u
period 19top-up-975u
period 18top-up-976u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale26758%-1651-28.9%164.3%Select
1% of bankroll499362%-10733-29.2%1061.1%Select
Flat (10 units)499362%-14358-28.8%1419.1%Select
2% of bankroll499362%-16615-29.5%1623.2%Select
5% of bankroll499362%-22903-29.9%2160.5%Selected
10% of bankroll499362%-24558-29.5%2191.9%Select
Quarter Kelly19368%-24608-81.8%2389.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4993, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.907lost-7-21903
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.027won+0-21896
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.017won+0-21897
20.08.261w Team – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.017won+0-21897
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.017won+0-21897
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.017won+0-21897
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Spirit1.017won+0-21897
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.007lost-7-21897
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.017won+0-21890
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.808lost-8-21890
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.858lost-8-21882
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.008lost-8-21874
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.458won+4-21866
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.009lost-9-21870
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingLGD Gaming1.019won+0-21861
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.009lost-9-21861
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.019won+0-21852
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.019won+0-21852
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.159won+1-21852
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.019won+0-21854
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.029won+0-21854
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.019won+0-21854
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamOG1.019won+0-21854
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.019won+0-21854
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.309lost-9-21854
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamXtreme Gaming1.019won+0-21845
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.0010lost-10-21845
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0410won+0-21835
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.4010lost-10-21835
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.6011lost-11-21825
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0511won+1-21814
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0111won+0-21814
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.2012lost-12-21814
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.2211won+3-21803
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.0012lost-12-21805
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.8013lost-13-21793
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9812won+12-21781
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1212won+1-21793
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.0612won+1-21794
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w TeamBETBOOM Team1.2012won+2-21795
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamTeam Yandex1.0112won+0-21797
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingTeam Spirit1.0112won+0-21797
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0212won+0-21797
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0112won+0-21798
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.0012lost-12-21798
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.3512won+4-21785
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.2012won+2-21790
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0612won+1-21792
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0013lost-13-21793
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0013lost-13-21780
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0014lost-14-21767
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.3015lost-15-21753
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0016lost-16-21738
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0016lost-16-21722
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0316won+0-21706
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0116won+0-21706
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0017lost-17-21707
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.0018lost-18-21689
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseRune Eaters Arise1.0118won+0-21671
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0118won+0-21672
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.