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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+501u
ROI
+9.6%
win rate
62%
bets
259
drawdown
13.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+57u
period 2profit withdrawn+45u
period 1profit withdrawn+399u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll25962%+3645+13.8%27.1%Select
5% of bankroll25962%+1395+10.6%21.5%Select
2% of bankroll25962%+501+9.6%13.7%Selected
1% of bankroll25962%+243+9.3%8.4%Select
Flat (10 units)25962%+237+9.1%8.6%Select
Martingale5366%-777-46.2%82.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.8822lost-221501
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx1.4021won+91522
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.5321won+111514
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8321won+171502
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.5121won+101485
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8821lost-211475
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5421won+111496
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.3521lost-211484
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8822lost-221506
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8822lost-221527
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.5422won+121549
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.8222won+181537
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.7622lost-221520
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingCloud Rising1.8322lost-221542
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8223lost-231564
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingHULIGANI1.7723won+171587
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8222won+181570
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityTeam Lynx1.6522won+141551
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7022won+151537
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamBy_Owl Team1.8222lost-221522
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8922won+191544
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7821won+171525
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 1111111.5022lost-221508
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampCyberHero1.6421won+141530
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7021won+151516
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthNew Growth1.7722lost-221502
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8322lost-221523
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Yandex1.8322won+181545
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8722lost-221527
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w TeamPARIVISION1.8522won+191550
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6821won+151531
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.5921won+121516
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8822lost-221504
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8621won+181525
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8521won+181507
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6921won+141489
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8920won+181475
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8521lost-211457
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6620won+131478
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIYellow Submarine1.6421lost-211464
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZLEGION1.6621won+131485
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6521lost-211472
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingBlasterbI1.5721won+121493
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7220won+151481
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7720won+151466
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8920won+181451
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6320won+121433
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANITeam Synapse1.7119won+141421
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7520lost-201407
03.10.261w Team – OGOG1.8820lost-201427
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6620lost-201447
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8620won+171467
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.7621lost-211450
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8120won+161470
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8721lost-211454
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidGamerLegion1.7620won+151475
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7621lost-211459
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8521lost-211480
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersGamerLegion1.7521won+161501
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.7421won+151486
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.