Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-1655u
ROI
-29.1%
win rate
58%
bets
267
drawdown
164.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 267 | 58% | -1655 | -29.1% | 164.7% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 4992 | 62% | -10726 | -29.2% | 1060.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 4992 | 62% | -14348 | -28.7% | 1418.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4992 | 62% | -16606 | -29.5% | 1622.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4992 | 62% | -22896 | -29.9% | 2159.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 4992 | 62% | -24556 | -29.5% | 2191.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1935 | 8% | -24607 | -81.8% | 2389.2% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 267, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.10.24 | Tundra Esports – Heroic | Tundra Esports | 3.40 | 306 | lost | -306 | -655 |
| 06.10.24 | beastcoast – Apex Genesis | Apex Genesis | 15.00 | 320 | lost | -320 | -349 |
| 06.10.24 | Team Falcons – AVULUS | AVULUS | 15.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | -29 |
| 06.10.24 | Looking for Org – Infinity Esports | Looking for Org | 2.50 | 80 | lost | -80 | 131 |
| 06.10.24 | L1ga Team – Invictus Gaming | L1ga Team | 11.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 211 |
| 06.10.24 | MOUZ – Natus Vincere | MOUZ | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 251 |
| 06.10.24 | Alliance – nouns | nouns | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 271 |
| 06.10.24 | Azure Ray – Nigma Galaxy | Azure Ray | 1.10 | 20 | won | +2 | 281 |
| 05.10.24 | Looking for Org – Natus Vincere | Looking for Org | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 279 |
| 05.10.24 | Tundra Esports – L1ga Team | Tundra Esports | 1.03 | 10 | won | +0 | 289 |
| 05.10.24 | Nigma Galaxy – beastcoast | Nigma Galaxy | 1.06 | 10 | won | +1 | 289 |
| 05.10.24 | Team Falcons – Alliance | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 288 |
| 05.10.24 | nouns – Infinity Esports | nouns | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 288 |
| 05.10.24 | Heroic – Azure Ray | Azure Ray | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 288 |
| 05.10.24 | Apex Genesis – Invictus Gaming | Apex Genesis | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 308 |
| 05.10.24 | AVULUS – MOUZ | AVULUS | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 318 |
| 04.10.24 | Tundra Esports – Looking for Org | Tundra Esports | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | 318 |
| 04.10.24 | Team Falcons – Nigma Galaxy | Team Falcons | 1.13 | 10 | won | +1 | 317 |
| 04.10.24 | Heroic – Natus Vincere | Heroic | 1.08 | 10 | won | +1 | 316 |
| 04.10.24 | AVULUS – beastcoast | AVULUS | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 315 |
| 04.10.24 | nouns – L1ga Team | nouns | 4.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | 315 |
| 04.10.24 | Invictus Gaming – Alliance | Invictus Gaming | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 335 |
| 04.10.24 | MOUZ – Apex Genesis | MOUZ | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 345 |
| 04.10.24 | Azure Ray – Infinity Esports | Azure Ray | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 345 |
| 01.10.24 | beastcoast – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 345 |
| 30.09.24 | nouns – Shopify Rebellion | nouns | 1.48 | 40 | won | +19 | 345 |
| 30.09.24 | WINTRADERs – Looking for Org | WINTRADERs | 9.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 325 |
| 30.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – Apex Genesis | Apex Genesis | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 345 |
| 30.09.24 | Palianytsia – OG | Palianytsia | 1.22 | 10 | won | +2 | 355 |
| 30.09.24 | Virtus.pro – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 353 |
| 30.09.24 | Nigma Galaxy – Zone Academy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 353 |
| 30.09.24 | OG – Natus Vincere Junior | OG | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 353 |
| 30.09.24 | Team Spirit – L1ga Team | Team Spirit | 1.08 | 10 | won | +1 | 353 |
| 30.09.24 | Talon Esports – Aurora Gaming | Talon Esports | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 352 |
| 30.09.24 | Azure Ray – Team Zero | Azure Ray | 1.32 | 40 | won | +13 | 352 |
| 30.09.24 | Invictus Gaming – Team Zero | Invictus Gaming | 12.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 339 |
| 30.09.24 | Aurora Gaming – BOOM Esports | BOOM Esports | 8.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 359 |
| 30.09.24 | Heroic – beastcoast | Heroic | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 369 |
| 30.09.24 | nouns – Shopify Rebellion | nouns | 3.40 | 10 | won | +24 | 369 |
| 30.09.24 | WINTRADERs – Cuyes Esports | WINTRADERs | 1.22 | 10 | won | +2 | 345 |
| 29.09.24 | Palianytsia – AVULUS | AVULUS | 1.15 | 10 | won | +1 | 343 |
| 29.09.24 | Cuyes Esports – Free Stack | Cuyes Esports | 2.35 | 10 | won | +14 | 341 |
| 29.09.24 | BandaNoone – Virtus.pro | BandaNoone | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 328 |
| 29.09.24 | Looking for Org – Dibujitos de fb | Looking for Org | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | 328 |
| 29.09.24 | difference team – unknown | unknown | 1.80 | 20 | won | +16 | 328 |
| 29.09.24 | Mouses – GRIN esports | Mouses | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 312 |
| 29.09.24 | Passion UA – OG | OG | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 322 |
| 29.09.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | 321 |
| 29.09.24 | 1w Team – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.02 | 10 | won | +0 | 331 |
| 29.09.24 | L1ga Team – Night Pulse | L1ga Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 331 |
| 29.09.24 | Invictus Gaming – Azure Ray | Invictus Gaming | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 331 |
| 29.09.24 | BOOM Esports – Bruv123 | BOOM Esports | 1.52 | 10 | won | +5 | 341 |
| 29.09.24 | Aurora Gaming – Talon Esports | Talon Esports | 1.13 | 10 | won | +1 | 336 |
| 29.09.24 | OG – Alliance | OG | 1.35 | 10 | won | +4 | 335 |
| 29.09.24 | Dragon Esports – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 331 |
| 29.09.24 | Team Spirit – Natus Vincere | Team Spirit | 1.30 | 20 | won | +6 | 331 |
| 29.09.24 | Night Pulse – One Move | One Move | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 325 |
| 29.09.24 | Execration – BOOM Esports | BOOM Esports | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 335 |
| 29.09.24 | Team Zero – Evil Rabbit | Evil Rabbit | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 335 |
| 29.09.24 | PlsReportTimber – Bruv123 | Bruv123 | 1.08 | 10 | won | +1 | 345 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.