Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-777u
ROI
-46.2%
win rate
66%
bets
53
drawdown
82.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+223u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +3810 | +14.3% | 27.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +1477 | +11.1% | 20.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +531 | +10.1% | 13.2% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +258 | +9.8% | 7.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 261 | 62% | +251 | +9.6% | 8.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 53 | 66% | -777 | -46.2% | 82.2% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 53, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.09.26 | Level UP – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.83 | 402 | lost | -402 | 223 |
| 06.09.26 | Level UP – 4ikibamboni | Level UP | 1.76 | 320 | lost | -320 | 626 |
| 06.09.26 | DYNASTY – Zero Tenacity | DYNASTY | 1.69 | 160 | lost | -160 | 946 |
| 06.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Pipsqueak+4 | Klim Sani4 | 1.59 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1106 |
| 05.09.26 | DYNASTY – Team Spirit Academy | DYNASTY | 1.55 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1186 |
| 05.09.26 | Team Lynx – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1226 |
| 04.09.26 | Inner Circle – Level UP | Inner Circle | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1246 |
| 04.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Klim Sani4 | Klim Sani4 | 1.59 | 20 | won | +12 | 1256 |
| 03.09.26 | PuckChamp – Team Spirit Academy | PuckChamp | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1244 |
| 03.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Klim Sani4 | Klim Sani4 | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1254 |
| 02.09.26 | DYNASTY – PuckChamp | DYNASTY | 1.62 | 20 | won | +12 | 1247 |
| 02.09.26 | Power Rangers – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1234 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Zero Tenacity | 1.83 | 20 | won | +17 | 1244 |
| 01.09.26 | Inner Circle – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1228 |
| 01.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – PuckChamp | Klim Sani4 | 1.71 | 20 | won | +14 | 1238 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1223 |
| 30.08.26 | Team Nemesis – Execration | Team Nemesis | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1233 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1224 |
| 29.08.26 | HULIGANI – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1217 |
| 29.08.26 | summer bear – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1208 |
| 29.08.26 | MOUZ – Yellow Submarine | MOUZ | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1201 |
| 29.08.26 | DYNASTY – Nemiga Gaming | DYNASTY | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 1192 |
| 29.08.26 | Team Resilience – Animals Incoming | Team Resilience | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1187 |
| 29.08.26 | Ice Cream Men – Team Kinetix | Ice Cream Men | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1178 |
| 29.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – the goal of all life is death | Yakult Brothers | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1169 |
| 29.08.26 | Natus Vincere – summer bear | Natus Vincere | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1160 |
| 29.08.26 | Cloud Rising – Novus Gaming | Cloud Rising | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1152 |
| 28.08.26 | FTS – Nemiga Gaming | FTS | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 1143 |
| 28.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Rune Eaters Arise | Rune Eaters Arise | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1125 |
| 28.08.26 | DYNASTY – PuckChamp | DYNASTY | 1.81 | 20 | won | +16 | 1135 |
| 28.08.26 | DYNASTY – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1119 |
| 28.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – summer bear | Rune Eaters Arise | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1129 |
| 28.08.26 | PuckChamp – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1120 |
| 27.08.26 | Nemiga Gaming – summer bear | summer bear | 1.83 | 80 | won | +66 | 1112 |
| 27.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Level UP | Klim Sani4 | 1.77 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1045 |
| 25.08.26 | summer bear – Team Spirit Academy | summer bear | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1085 |
| 25.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1105 |
| 25.08.26 | Inner Circle – FTS | Inner Circle | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 1115 |
| 25.08.26 | FTS – PuckChamp | PuckChamp | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1108 |
| 25.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – summer bear | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1100 |
| 25.08.26 | PuckChamp – Nemiga Gaming | PuckChamp | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1092 |
| 24.08.26 | DYNASTY – FTS | DYNASTY | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1083 |
| 24.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – Team Lynx | Rune Eaters Arise | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1066 |
| 24.08.26 | summer bear – Ducksquad | summer bear | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1076 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Klim Sani4 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1067 |
| 24.08.26 | Inner Circle – Nemiga Gaming | Inner Circle | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1058 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1049 |
| 23.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1041 |
| 22.08.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 1034 |
| 22.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1016 |
| 22.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TEAM | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1026 |
| 22.08.26 | Team Spirit – Team Liquid | Team Spirit | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1018 |
| 21.08.26 | Team Yandex – Nigma Galaxy | Team Yandex | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1009 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.