Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+0u
ROI
+0%
win rate
0%
bets
0
drawdown
0%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +3810 | +14.3% | 27.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +1477 | +11.1% | 20.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +531 | +10.1% | 13.2% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 261 | 62% | +258 | +9.8% | 7.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 261 | 62% | +251 | +9.6% | 8.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 53 | 66% | -777 | -46.2% | 82.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 0, showing the last 60.
This strategy places no bets in the selected sample.
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.