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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1832u
ROI
-3.8%
win rate
57%
bets
5552
drawdown
189.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-76u
period 6top-up-265u
period 5top-up-419u
period 4top-up-497u
period 3top-up-341u
period 2top-up-167u
period 1top-up-68u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale47653%-1165-7.3%112.8%Select
1% of bankroll555257%-1832-3.8%189.4%Selected
Flat (10 units)555257%-2089-3.8%220.2%Select
2% of bankroll555257%-3221-3.9%328.6%Select
5% of bankroll555257%-5559-3.9%555.3%Select
10% of bankroll555257%-6703-3.9%352.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5552, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Falcons – Ninjas in PyjamasFalcons1.879won+8-832
14.10.26Bushido Wildcats – BAKSBushido Wildcats1.799lost-9-840
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.499won+5-831
14.10.26ex-RUSTEC – mellrenex-RUSTEC1.779won+7-836
14.10.26Astralis – SashiAstralis1.559won+5-843
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.849won+8-848
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.669won+6-855
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.469lost-9-861
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.749lost-9-852
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.879won+8-843
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.559lost-9-851
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.659won+6-842
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.729lost-9-848
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.439won+4-838
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.789won+7-842
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.609lost-9-849
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.719won+6-840
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.409won+4-847
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.859lost-9-850
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.539won+5-841
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.769won+7-846
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.679won+6-853
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.609won+5-859
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.879won+8-864
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.769lost-9-872
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.709won+6-863
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.809won+7-869
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.719won+6-876
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademySpirit Academy1.639lost-9-883
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.839won+7-874
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersZomblers1.829lost-9-881
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECNuclear TigeRES1.709lost-9-872
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.629won+6-863
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.679won+6-869
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden Hordeex-RUSTEC1.589won+5-875
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.789won+7-880
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.459won+4-886
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.839won+7-890
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeGenOne1.459lost-9-897
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.729won+6-889
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.469won+4-895
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.669lost-9-899
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.349won+3-890
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.799won+7-893
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.539won+5-900
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.758won+6-904
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.749lost-9-911
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.779lost-9-902
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.509won+4-894
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.819lost-9-898
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8Rooster1.759won+6-889
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.749lost-9-896
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.829won+7-887
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.829lost-9-894
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.669won+6-885
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEDENDELE1.879lost-9-891
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.489won+4-882
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters1.729won+6-887
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.359lost-9-893
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsNT1.799lost-9-884
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.