Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-1460u
ROI
-7.3%
win rate
53%
bets
2438
drawdown
149.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-279u
period 3top-up-515u
period 2top-up-263u
period 1top-up-403u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 77 | 48% | -1000 | -36.2% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -1460 | -7.3% | 149.1% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 2438 | 53% | -1778 | -7.3% | 182.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -2420 | -7.2% | 242.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -3671 | -6.7% | 354.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -3988 | -5% | 203.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2438, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | ENCE | 1.82 | 7 | won | +6 | -460 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.78 | 7 | won | +6 | -466 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 7 | lost | -7 | -472 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.56 | 7 | won | +4 | -464 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 7 | lost | -7 | -468 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.83 | 7 | won | +6 | -461 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 7 | won | +5 | -467 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 7 | won | +4 | -472 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 7 | lost | -7 | -476 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 7 | lost | -7 | -468 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Bushido Wildcats | 1.57 | 7 | won | +4 | -461 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | G2 Ares | 1.80 | 7 | won | +6 | -465 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 7 | won | +4 | -471 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 7 | lost | -7 | -475 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 7 | lost | -7 | -468 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 7 | lost | -7 | -461 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 7 | won | +6 | -453 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 7 | lost | -7 | -459 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 7 | lost | -7 | -452 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 7 | lost | -7 | -444 |
| 19.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.68 | 7 | won | +5 | -437 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.84 | 7 | lost | -7 | -442 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 7 | won | +5 | -435 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 7 | lost | -7 | -440 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 8 | lost | -8 | -433 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 8 | lost | -8 | -425 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | EAC | 1.72 | 8 | won | +5 | -417 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 8 | lost | -8 | -423 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.67 | 8 | won | +5 | -415 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.49 | 8 | won | +4 | -420 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.67 | 8 | won | +5 | -424 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 7 | won | +6 | -429 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 8 | lost | -8 | -435 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.85 | 8 | lost | -8 | -427 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.78 | 8 | won | +6 | -419 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 7 | won | +6 | -425 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.81 | 7 | won | +6 | -431 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.50 | 7 | won | +4 | -437 |
| 19.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Endless Journey | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 7 | won | +3 | -441 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 7 | won | +6 | -444 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.73 | 7 | lost | -7 | -450 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.84 | 7 | lost | -7 | -443 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 8 | lost | -8 | -435 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Permitta | 1.54 | 7 | won | +4 | -428 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | Fire Flux | 1.82 | 8 | lost | -8 | -432 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Omega | 1.46 | 8 | lost | -8 | -424 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 8 | won | +6 | -417 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 8 | lost | -8 | -423 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.77 | 8 | won | +6 | -415 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 8 | lost | -8 | -421 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.70 | 8 | won | +5 | -413 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 8 | won | +6 | -419 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 8 | lost | -8 | -425 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.30 | 8 | won | +2 | -417 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 8 | won | +3 | -419 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.75 | 8 | won | +6 | -422 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | -428 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 8 | won | +5 | -420 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 7 | won | +6 | -425 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 7 | won | +6 | -432 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.