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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-5559u
ROI
-3.9%
win rate
57%
bets
5552
drawdown
555.3%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-540u
period 6top-up-918u
period 5top-up-967u
period 4top-up-981u
period 3top-up-920u
period 2top-up-814u
period 1top-up-418u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale47653%-1165-7.3%112.8%Select
1% of bankroll555257%-1832-3.8%189.4%Select
Flat (10 units)555257%-2089-3.8%220.2%Select
2% of bankroll555257%-3221-3.9%328.6%Select
5% of bankroll555257%-5559-3.9%555.3%Selected
10% of bankroll555257%-6703-3.9%352.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5552, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Falcons – Ninjas in PyjamasFalcons1.8722won+19-4559
14.10.26Bushido Wildcats – BAKSBushido Wildcats1.7923lost-23-4578
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.4923won+11-4555
14.10.26ex-RUSTEC – mellrenex-RUSTEC1.7722won+17-4566
14.10.26Astralis – SashiAstralis1.5521won+12-4583
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.8420won+17-4595
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.6620won+13-4612
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.4621lost-21-4625
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.7422lost-22-4604
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.8721won+18-4582
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.5522lost-22-4600
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.6521won+14-4578
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.7222lost-22-4592
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.4322won+9-4570
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7821won+17-4579
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6022lost-22-4596
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7122won+15-4573
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.4021won+8-4589
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.8522lost-22-4597
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.5322won+12-4575
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.7621won+16-4586
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.6720won+14-4602
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.6020won+12-4616
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.8719won+16-4627
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7620lost-20-4644
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7019won+13-4624
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.8018won+15-4637
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.7118won+13-4652
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademySpirit Academy1.6319lost-19-4665
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.8318won+15-4646
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersZomblers1.8219lost-19-4661
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECNuclear TigeRES1.7020lost-20-4642
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.6219won+12-4622
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.6719won+12-4634
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden Hordeex-RUSTEC1.5818won+10-4646
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.7817won+14-4657
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.4517won+8-4670
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.8316won+14-4678
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeGenOne1.4517lost-17-4692
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.7217won+12-4674
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.4616won+7-4686
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.6617lost-17-4694
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.3417won+6-4677
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.7916won+13-4682
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.5316won+8-4695
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.7515won+11-4704
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.7416lost-16-4715
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.7717lost-17-4699
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.5016won+8-4682
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.8117lost-17-4691
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8Rooster1.7517won+13-4673
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.7418lost-18-4686
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8217won+14-4668
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.8218lost-18-4682
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.6617won+11-4664
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEDENDELE1.8718lost-18-4676
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.4818won+8-4658
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters1.7217won+12-4666
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3518lost-18-4678
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsNT1.7919lost-19-4660
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.