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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1841u
ROI
-3.9%
win rate
57%
bets
5551
drawdown
189.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-84u
period 6top-up-265u
period 5top-up-419u
period 4top-up-497u
period 3top-up-341u
period 2top-up-167u
period 1top-up-68u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale47453%-471-3.3%72.3%Select
1% of bankroll555157%-1841-3.9%189.8%Select
Flat (10 units)555157%-2098-3.8%220.9%Select
2% of bankroll555157%-3236-3.9%330.1%Select
5% of bankroll555157%-5578-4%554.7%Select
10% of bankroll555157%-6710-3.9%352.4%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5551, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Bushido Wildcats – BAKSBushido Wildcats1.799lost-9-841
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.499won+5-832
14.10.26ex-RUSTEC – mellrenex-RUSTEC1.779won+7-836
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.849won+8-843
14.10.26Astralis – SashiAstralis1.559won+5-851
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.669won+6-856
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.469lost-9-862
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.879won+8-853
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.559lost-9-860
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.749lost-9-851
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.659won+6-842
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.729lost-9-848
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.439won+4-839
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.789won+7-843
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.609lost-9-850
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.719won+6-841
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.409won+4-847
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.859lost-9-851
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.539won+5-842
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.769won+7-846
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.679won+6-853
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.609won+5-859
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.879won+8-865
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.769lost-9-872
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.709won+6-863
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.809won+7-870
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.719won+6-877
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademySpirit Academy1.639lost-9-883
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersZomblers1.829lost-9-874
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.839won+7-865
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECNuclear TigeRES1.709lost-9-872
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.679won+6-864
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.629won+5-869
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden Hordeex-RUSTEC1.589won+5-875
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.789won+7-880
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.459won+4-887
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.839won+7-891
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeGenOne1.459lost-9-898
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.729won+6-889
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.469won+4-895
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.349won+3-899
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.669lost-9-902
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.799won+7-893
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.539won+5-900
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.758won+6-905
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.749lost-9-911
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.779lost-9-903
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.509won+4-894
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.819lost-9-898
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.749lost-9-890
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8Rooster1.759won+7-881
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.829won+7-887
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.829lost-9-895
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.669won+6-886
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEDENDELE1.879lost-9-892
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters1.729won+6-883
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.489won+4-889
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.359lost-9-893
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsNT1.799lost-9-884
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.559won+5-876
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.